Ratings2Win Midweek Metro Preview: Canterbury Race 1, Wednesday 10th August 2016

Posted: August 10, 2016

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Midweek Metro Preview

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R1 Canterbury 1550m MDN 3YO HCP $40,000

Track

Heavy 8, Rail is at 6m

Tempo

The R2W Early Speed Map predicts a Below Average tempo.

Race Overview

The early morning markets suggest that this race will be won 86 times in 100 by one of four runners. This race appeals as a good opportunity to oppose one of the fancied runners and support another.

Advantaged Horses

4. Black On Gold: No luck last start after missing the start and being held up at a vital time. Having his third run this preparation having had the benefit of its two runs back over 1400 and 1500. Christian Reith takes over the reins and from the gate can settle closer. The obvious value selection.

Neutral Horses

3. Mister Mcilroy: Waller runner having his second career run and stepping up in distance which looks a suitable move. Another that didn’t have much luck after being held up on debut at Kembla.

5. Fencourt: Came out of the same race as Black On Gold last time. Gets back which is problematical in a race that lacks pace.

Disadvantaged Horses

1. Preferito: Second up off a long spell and is now stepping up in distance from 1200 to 1550m which is a major concern on the Heavy track. Whilst this colt enjoys a map advantage over the other main market chances distance and fitness concerns suggest he should not be as short as he is currently.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Black On Gold at $3.25+ (1.2 units)

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Preferito up to $3.50 (lay liability exposure up to 3% of betting bank)

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