Ratings2Win: Ascot, Saturday October 28 2016 – Prince of Wales Stakes

Posted: October 28, 2016 at 4:14 pm

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Feature Race Analysis

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R6 Prince Of Wales Stakes, 1000m GP3 3YO+ WFA $151,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4 Rail is in the true position. Mainly fine leading up to Saturday however there are predicted showers (80% chance 1-2mm) on race morning and during the afternoon. If that occurs, we should see a track no worse than the Good4 rating. The predicted winds are S to SW 20-30km/h, that could have an impact. Based on the predicted conditions, the best positions in run will be on pace and perhaps with a preference for some cover.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: With a decent run to the home turn all riders should have time to settle their mounts and find a position. Troy Turner can hold the lead on the Price trained Smoko with Jake Casey on pre-post favourite Vega Magic sitting outside or just off the leader.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have five runners single figure odds whereas the R2W computer has four. Our top-rated selection Vega Magic is resuming off a 119-day spell. He races well fresh so his fitness levels aren’t a concern. Our second rated selection Cool Passion is a winner and is in peak form, Paul Harvey retains the ride. At the time of writing Thursday, he is some value in current fixed odds markets at $5.50.

Runner Analysis

prince-of-wales-stakes-runner-analysis

Advantaged Horses

9. Cool Passion: Returned good adjusted figures winning last start. Maps off the speed with some cover behind the favourite and is sure to get her chance in the straight. Is four from four at Ascot and with Paul Harvey retaining the ride looks the current value.

Neutral Horses

5. Vega Magic: Won seven from 10 and races well fresh. Looks to map well and will be there to pounce in the straight. This is his hardest test to date but is in this with a decent chance. Currently under our assessed odds.

Disadvantaged Horses

2. First Among Equals: Get back runner with claims and races well over the 1000m, will be running on but current fixed odds suggest he is one to avoid.

3. Battle Hero: Another with claims here. Resumes off a 140-day spell and whilst he can be competitive fresh I would prefer him over 1200m+.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Cool Passion at $5.00+ (1 unit)

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