Ratings2Win: Ascot, Saturday October 28 2016 – Asian Beau Stakes

Posted: October 28, 2016

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Feature Race Analysis

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R7 Asian Beau Stakes 1400m GP3 3YO+ HCP $151,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4 Rail is in the true position. Mainly fine leading up to Saturday however there are predicted showers (80% chance 1-2mm) on race morning and during the afternoon. If that occurs, we should see a track no worse than the Good4 rating. The predicted winds are S to SW 20-30km/h, that could have an impact. Based on the predicted conditions, the best positions in run will be on pace and perhaps with a preference for some cover.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Below Average to Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Starts on a bend just off the back straight. Horses with speed drawn wide are advantaged. Craig Staples on Great Shot can cross and lead with Joseph Azzopardi on Ideal Image and Alan Kennedy on Showy Chloe finding on pace positions.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have 4 runners single figure odds, the R2W computer concurs. At the time of writing Thursday, our top-rated selection Ideal Image is currently some value as is our equal second rated selection Ideal Image. The other (equal second) Heart Starter is currently short odds when comparing to our assessed odds. So, the dilemma is whether to back Ideal Image and Neverland or lay Heart Starter. Interestingly all are owned by the same connections.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

3. Ideal Image: Had a nice run just off the speed last start and ran on fair to be just beaten by Liten In My Veins who returned good adjusted figures. Was second up that day off a 273-day spell so may have needed the run. Maps on pace today and looks a decent chance.

Neutral Horses

4. Neverland: Second up here off a 287-day spell so there is a slight concern over her fitness levels. Maps midfield and will be running on, chance.

6. Great Shot: Gets a soft lead here and can be in this for a long way. Has figures that suggest he can place in this field.

Disadvantaged Horses

7. Heart Starter: Seems terribly well found on current fixed odds ($2.80). Whilst I concede he is some chance in this race he would need to lift his ratings considerably to win this. Won first up in BM78 class at Bunbury and even with Pike on board he is one to oppose.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bets in the race.

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Heart Starter up to at $4.20 (lay liability exposure up to 5% of betting bank)

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