Ratings2Win: Ascot, Saturday October 22 2016 – Belgravia Stakes

Posted: October 21, 2016 at 10:42 am

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Feature Race Analysis

Axis is Australia’s leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings. www.ratings2win.com.au

R7 Belgravia Stakes, 1200m LR 3YO SWP $100,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4 Rail is in the 3m position. Mainly fine leading up to Saturday therefore we should get no worse than a Good4 if the current reading is accurate. On that basis, the best positions in run will be on pace with the fence likely to be fair.

Keep an eye on Twitter https://twitter.com/PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: With a long run to the home turn all riders will have plenty of time to settle their mounts and find a position. Joseph Azzopardi can hold the lead on the Simon Miller trained Caipirinha with Takahide Ikenushi on pre-post favourite The Celt sitting outside leader.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have 6 runners single figure odds whereas the R2W computer has four. Our equal top rated selection The Celt is resuming off a 70-day spell so his fitness levels are a slight concern. His rider Takahide Ikenushi has a poor record on Metropolitan runners having won only three times in his last 61 attempts (over a rolling 365-day period). He has never won at black type level (11 attempts) and his record on favourites is only three from 13 during the same period of review. These figures do not inspire confidence despite him riding an on pace/leader type and on that basis we feel there is an opportunity to oppose the current favourite ($3.20 at the time of writing Thursday).

Runner Analysis

belgravia-stakes-runner-analysis

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

NIL

Disadvantaged Horses

2. The Celt: A definite winning chance but for the reasons already stated in our race overview. It all comes down to price so we are prepared to oppose him based on his current odds.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) The Celt up to at $4.8 (lay liability exposure up to 4% of betting bank)

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