Ratings2Win: Ascot, Saturday October 15 2016 – Northerly Stakes

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Feature Race Analysis

Axis is Australia’s leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings. www.ratings2win.com.au

R7 Northerly Stakes 1400m GP3 4YO+ SWP $151,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4 Rail is in the 6m position. Mainly fine with the possibility of showers (up to 3mm in total) Friday and Saturday morning therefore we should get no worse than a Good4 if the current reading is accurate. The bureau has predicted W to SW winds 25-40km/h Saturday afternoon. If they eventuate, that will have an impact on not only the early speed of races but also the pattern. The best positions in run will therefore likely to be with cover. Run on horses should get their opportunity.

Keep an eye on Twitter https://twitter.com/PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: With only a short run to the first turn Peter Knuckey on Vengabus should cross and lead with Craig Staples on Great Shot also crossing and sitting outside leader.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have three runners single figure odds whereas the R2W computer has two. Our top selection is resuming off a 343-day spell so obviously his fitness levels are of concern. Whilst there is seemingly some value in his current fixed odds price, we feel there is a good opportunity to oppose the current short priced favourite and stablemate ($2.10 at the time of writing Thursday) who is also resuming off a decent spell (224-days).

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

4. Disposition: One of the main chances who can map behind the main speed and get its chance if fit enough first up. Normally races well fresh but this is off a long break.

Disadvantaged Horses

3. Perfect Reflection: Stablemate of Disposition who resumes here off a 224-day spell. Her best performance so far was on a Heavy 9 track here in December 2015. Whilst she has won five of her seven career starts her current odds do not in our opinion factor correctly her chances of winning here.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bets in the race.

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Perfect Reflection up to $3.25 (lay liability exposure up to 4% of betting bank)

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