Ratings2Win: Ascot, Saturday November 5th 2016 – Lee Steere Stakes

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Feature Race Analysis

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R6 Lee Steere Stakes, 1400m GP2 3YO+ WFA $252,000


Currently rated Good 4 Rail is in the 6m position. Fine leading up to Saturday so we should see a track no worse than the current Good4 rating. The best positions in run will be 1+ off the fence.

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For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Below Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Starts on a bend just off the back straight. Horses with speed drawn wide are advantaged. Brad Parnham on Pornichet can cross to lead with the small field allowing other riders to find their early positions.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have four runners single figure odds, the R2W computer agrees. Currently there is only a small amount of value in our top-rated selection which makes confident betting problematic however our fourth rated Wind And A Nod appeals as a horse worth specking at big odds also.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses


Neutral Horses

3. Disposition: Second up today and will strip fitter than a closing 4th first up behind Liten In My Veins. Has been competitive in GP1 company last preparation in VIC, definite top pick.

7. Perfect Reflection: Stablemate of Disposition, Pike rides. Is currently under the odds and will most likely be better third up and beyond over a slightly longer journey.

2. Kawi: NZ appearing here for the first time off a 49-day break. Hs won 13 of 26 starts and been successful in GP1 company back home, chance but currently under the odds.

4. Liten In My Veins: Beat most of these horses last start when competing under Set Weight with Penalties conditions. Won 5 from 7 starts now and is an improving type, chance but another who is currently under the odds.

8. Wink And A Nod: Yet to show her best form this preparation however the market has her much longer than our assessed price so is one of the value hopes. Last preparation won 4 of her 9 starts, is on the quick back up which suggests that she could improve on her recent form here.

Disadvantaged Horses

6. Tradesman: Has been racing in much easier BM races and will certainly feel the rise in grade under WFA conditions. Current fixed odds of $11 is unders, likely to drift.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bet in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Disposition at $3.75+ (1 unit)

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Wink With A Nod at $12+ (0.3 unit)

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