Ratings2Win: Ascot, Saturday November 5th 2016 – Lee Steere Stakes

Posted: November 3, 2016

Ratings2Win Betfair

Feature Race Analysis

Axis is Australia’s leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings. www.ratings2win.com.au

R6 Lee Steere Stakes, 1400m GP2 3YO+ WFA $252,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4 Rail is in the 6m position. Fine leading up to Saturday so we should see a track no worse than the current Good4 rating. The best positions in run will be 1+ off the fence.

Follow me on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates and additional racing insights.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Below Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Starts on a bend just off the back straight. Horses with speed drawn wide are advantaged. Brad Parnham on Pornichet can cross to lead with the small field allowing other riders to find their early positions.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have four runners single figure odds, the R2W computer agrees. Currently there is only a small amount of value in our top-rated selection which makes confident betting problematic however our fourth rated Wind And A Nod appeals as a horse worth specking at big odds also.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

3. Disposition: Second up today and will strip fitter than a closing 4th first up behind Liten In My Veins. Has been competitive in GP1 company last preparation in VIC, definite top pick.

7. Perfect Reflection: Stablemate of Disposition, Pike rides. Is currently under the odds and will most likely be better third up and beyond over a slightly longer journey.

2. Kawi: NZ appearing here for the first time off a 49-day break. Hs won 13 of 26 starts and been successful in GP1 company back home, chance but currently under the odds.

4. Liten In My Veins: Beat most of these horses last start when competing under Set Weight with Penalties conditions. Won 5 from 7 starts now and is an improving type, chance but another who is currently under the odds.

8. Wink And A Nod: Yet to show her best form this preparation however the market has her much longer than our assessed price so is one of the value hopes. Last preparation won 4 of her 9 starts, is on the quick back up which suggests that she could improve on her recent form here.

Disadvantaged Horses

6. Tradesman: Has been racing in much easier BM races and will certainly feel the rise in grade under WFA conditions. Current fixed odds of $11 is unders, likely to drift.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bet in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Disposition at $3.75+ (1 unit)

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Wink With A Nod at $12+ (0.3 unit)

©ratings2win Pty Ltd 2016. Printed under licence to Betfair Pty Ltd. This document is for personal use only and must not be reproduced. This information is supplied “as is” and is to be used for general guidance only. Use of this information is entirely at your own risk. Neither Betfair nor ratings2win make any representations or warranties of any kind, including but not limited to, the accuracy, quality or completeness of the information contained herein. The Early Speed Map graphical format is provided to Betfair by Racing and Sports Pty Ltd. All intellectual property of the Early Speed Maps is owned by ratings2win Pty Ltd. Please gamble responsibly. For more information, visit Betfair’s Responsibility Gambling Policy.

Related Articles