Ratings2Win: Ascot, Saturday November 12th 2016 – R.J. Peters Stakes

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Feature Race Analysis

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R6 R.J. Peters Stakes, 1500m GP3 3YO+ HCP $151,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4 Rail is in the 9m position. Showers are predicted leading up to Saturday (95% chance 2-6mm). If that occurs, we should see a track perhaps slightly worse than the current Good4 rating. The predicted winds are S to SW 20-30km/h, that could have an impact. Based on the predicted conditions, the best positions in run will be on pace and perhaps with a preference for some cover.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Starts from a chute off the back straight where horses effectively start turning shortly after the jump. Horses with speed drawn wide are advantaged. Craig Staples on Great Shot and Paul Harvey on Scales Of Justice will attempt to find their positions early whilst Peter Knuckey on Vengabus is capable of applying pressure to them early from the inside or choose to ease and take a trail. Joseph Azzopardi on Ideal Image can find a nice position with cover on or just off the pace.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have 5 runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has 4. At the time of writing Thursday, our top-rated selection Scales Of Justice is currently under our assessed price however there is currently value in our second selection Ideal Image who looks to map well in this race. This race shapes as an opportunity to support our 2nd top rated selection at value odds.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

3. Ideal Image: Racing quite well without yet winning this preparation. Sat outside the leader last time and boxed on quite well. Up in distance slightly and fourth up should see the mare close to her peak. Meets Heart Starter 2kg better and looks to map very well. The value play at the current fixed odds of $7.50.

Neutral Horses

10. Scales Of Justice: Very consistent gelding who could have won more races than he has if it were for not over racing regularly. Enjoyed a soft lead when winning last time and whilst he gets a 3kg weight drop to offset the rise in grade he seems very well found here on current fixed odds of $2.50 which is below our assessed price.

6. Great Shot: Led and controlled the race last time before boxing on quite well. Meets Heart Starter 3 kg better today and will look to employ similar tactics again. Definite winning chance but the current odds on offer do not appeal.

Disadvantaged Horses

1. Heart Starter: Was opposed to this gelding last time when a narrow winner after having the perfect run throughout. Meets several of these worse at the weights and the current odds do nothing to enthuse. One to avoid.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Ideal Image at $6.00+ (0.65 unit)

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