Ratings2Win: Ascot, Saturday 3rd December 2016 – Sir Ernest Lee-Steere Classic

Posted: December 2, 2016

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Feature Race Analysis

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R4 Ernest Lee-Steere Classic, 1400m LR 3YO SW $100,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4 Rail is in the 3m position. A fair bit of cloud about but looks like we will avoid rain at least until late afternoon on Saturday where there is the possibility of a shower. We should see a track no worse than the current Good 4 rating. The best positions in run will be most likely on pace.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Starts on a bend just off the back straight. Horses with speed drawn wide are advantaged. Joseph Azzopardi on Caipirinha can cross to lead with Hugh Bowman on Lusaha box seating. Brad Parnham on the long shot Wrinkly could end up 3 wide.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have four runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has only two. Currently there is no value in either of our top-two rated horses which makes recommending a selection at this stage problematic. Forced to select now at the time of writing (Thursday) I would have to settle on our top-rated selection.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

8. Caipirinha: Very fit and racing well, did a good job dropping back in distance from the 1600m to the 1200m on the quick back up last time to win well in a fraction above on a relative basis. With control, here is the one to beat but current fixed odds of $1.85 mean that we must wait till race day and reassess.

Neutral Horses

3. Lusaha: Ran almost similar time to Caipirinha last time and is another who is extremely fit. My only negative with this gelding is that he didn’t seem to finish off his race last time when camped on a hot speed and in the right position to strike. Under set weights conditions must give the favourite 2kg which I feel is a disadvantage. Definite winning chance but under the odds at present.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be no potential value bets in the race but we will reassess on race day and update accordingly if there is any change.

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