Ratings2Win: Ascot, Saturday 3rd December 2016: Kingston Town Classic

Posted: December 2, 2016 at 8:50 am

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Feature Race Analysis

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R8 Kingston Town Classic, 1800m GP1 3YO+ WFA $1,007,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4 Rail is in the 3m position. A fair bit of cloud about but looks like we will avoid rain at least until late afternoon on Saturday where there is the possibility of a shower. We should see a track no worse than the current Good 4 rating. The best positions in run will be most likely on pace.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Douglas Whyte on Scales Of Justice can cross to lead with Damien Oliver on Mackintosh pressing forward now that he is up to 1800m and holding a position close to the lead. The long-priced Heart Starter can also race more forward.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have four runners single figure odds, the R2W computer agrees. Currently our top-rated selection is priced close to our assessment. Scales of Justice currently occupies the second line in betting and has been racing in career best form. Vanbrugh maps around midfield and has now had five runs back this preparation. Current fixed odds markets seem to offering value odds. Kawi is under our assessed price.

Runner Analysis

kingston-town-classic-runner-analysis

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

16. Perfect Reflection: Should be close to her peak now that she has had three runs back. Ran on fair last time when suited by the pace shape of the race. Looms as one of the main chances again.

10. Scales of Justice: Racing in career best form winning all her last three starts, the latest by a margin of 2.8L. Steps up to 1800m now for the first time and is sure to be well fancied again, definite winning chance.

11. Vanbrugh: One of the Chris Waller trained contingent. Gets blinkers for the first time and appears here of a 28-day freshen. Combine that with the slight drop back in distance and this race looks an ideal target. Definite claims so the current fixed odds of $14 is worth a speculative bet.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Vanbrugh at $9.00+ (0.5 unit)

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