Ratings2Win: Ascot, Saturday 26th November 2016 – Winterbottom Stakes

Posted: November 25, 2016

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Feature Race Analysis

Axis is Australia’s leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings. www.ratings2win.com.au

R8 Winterbottom Stakes, 1200m GP1 3YO+ WFA $1,005,000

Track

Currently rated Good 3 Rail is in the 6m position. Fine leading up to Saturday so we should see a track that is a genuine Good 3. The predicted winds moderate so that should not impact. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should play fair.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Starts from a chute in the back straight with a long run to the home turn giving all runners time to find their positions. Damien Oliver on Sheidel and Jake Casey on Vega Magic look the most likely candidates for the lead. Tim Clark on Takedown trails the speed.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have four runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has three. At the time of writing Thursday, our top-rated selection Rock Magic is value odds. Our second and third selections (namely the current favourites) are under our assessed odds. The race presents an opportunity to back our top-rated selection.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

4. Rock Magic: Has returned well this preparation with a win at WFA first up in a Group 3. Ran on well 2up over 1100m in fast overall time and solid sectionals for Group 3 class. Up to 1200m now and will be charging home. EDIT: Addition of Bar Plates have changed price and stake.

8. Vega Magic: Makes his own luck and dashed clear last time to just hold out Rock Magic with a gap of 2.7 lengths to the third horse in fast overall time. Third up into this race today and the 1200m looks ideal.

Disadvantaged Horses

2. Malaguerra: Looks one of the winning chances but is currently under the odds and is one to avoid. Fell in last time in a Group 1 WFA race that overall returned below PAR figures.

1. Terravista: Another with winning claims but is currently under the odds and is one to avoid. Maps back towards the tail here and will need a produce a decent performance to get over the top of some of these. Seems to be racing better up the straight these days and is second up off a long spell.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Rock Magic at $12+ (0.5 unit)

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