Ratings2Win: Ascot, Saturday 19th November 2016 – W.A. Guineas

Posted: November 17, 2016

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Feature Race Analysis

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R7 W.A. Guineas, 1600m GP2 3YO SW $502,000

Track

Currently rated Soft 6 Rail is in the 3m position. Mainly fine leading up to Saturday so we should see a track perhaps slightly better than the current Soft 6 rating. The predicted winds are S to SW 20-30km/h, that could have an impact. Based on the predicted conditions, the best positions in run will be on pace and perhaps with a preference for some cover.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Starts from a chute off the back straight where horses effectively start turning shortly after the jump. Horses with sufficient early speed drawn wide are advantaged. Craig Williams on Lusaha will surely try to be positive and lead with Damien Oliver coming across on I Am Boudica to race outside leader. Whispering Brook and Ellicazoom map well.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have five runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has three. At the time of writing Thursday, our top-rated selection Whispering Brook is currently value odds. Our second, selection is assessed at the current fixed odds quote. There are three other runners currently single figure odds that should be longer hence the race presents an opportunity to back our top-rated selection and save on our second pick.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

14. Whispering Brook: Come off what is seemingly an inferior run last time however had some excuses. Her previous run has figures that warrant her being a decent chance today. Genuine chance at value odds.

Neutral Horses

16. Ellicazoom: Three runs back this preparation has resulted in two wins and a second in competitive figures. Was reported as having pulled up lame after her last run but assuming she is fit enough to compete here warrants a genuine winning chance. Looks the main danger.

Disadvantaged Horses

1. Sauls Special: Looks like he could face a wide trip here at his first attempt at 1600m. Currently under the odds and is one to avoid.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Whispering Brook at $5.00+ (1.2 units)

Back on Betfair BACK – SAVE (WIN) Ellicazoom at $5.00+ (0.3 units)

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