Ratings2Win: Ascot, Saturday 12th November 2016 – W.A. Champion Fillies Stakes

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Feature Race Analysis

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R5 W.A. Champion Fillies Stakes, 1600m GP3 3YO F SW $201,000


Currently rated Good 4 Rail is in the 9m position. Showers are predicted leading up to Saturday (95% chance 2-6mm). If that occurs, we should see a track perhaps slightly worse than the current Good4 rating. The predicted winds are S to SW 20-30km/h, that could have an impact. Based on the predicted conditions, the best positions in run will be on pace and perhaps with a preference for some cover.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.


For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Starts from a chute off the back straight where horses effectively start turning shortly after the jump. Horses with speed drawn wide are advantaged. Joseph Azzopardi on the Simon Miller trained Caipirinha can cross from the middle draw and lead easily if desired or alternatively sit outside Steven Parnham on Ellicazoom.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have five runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has four. At the time of writing Thursday, our top-rated selection Caipirinha is currently value odds. Our second, third and fourth selections are currently under our assessed price therefore this race shapes as an opportunity to support our clear top-rated value selection.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

1. Caipirinha: Racing well. Led and was run down late last time when over racing and in what was arguably the worst ground. Meets her main rival 2kg better and can give this a real shake. Current fixed odds of $3.40 appeals.

Neutral Horses

4. Ellicazoom: Two runs back this preparation has resulted in two wins in competitive figures. Had the perfect run and last shot at Caipirinha last time when she went on to win by a length. Meets that filly 2kg worse under set weight conditions and whilst she is the logical second pick her current odds of $2.60 are well short of our assessed price.

Disadvantaged Horses

3. Royal Missile: Likely to be well back in this field which makes her task difficult again. Combining that with her current fixed odds of $6 makes her one to avoid.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Caipirinha at $3.15+ (1.25 units)

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