Ratings2Win: Ascot, Saturday 10th December 2016 – A.J. Scahill Stakes

Posted: December 8, 2016

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Feature Race Analysis

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R4 A.J. Scahill Stakes, 1400m GP3 3YO+ WFA $251,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4 Rail is in the 9m position. A fair bit of cloud about but looks like we will avoid rain at least until late afternoon on Saturday where there is the possibility of a shower. We should see a track no worse than the current Good 4 rating. The best positions in run will be most likely on pace.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Starts on a bend just off the back straight. All runners get their chance to find the fence (if desired) in this small field. Jason Brown on Lusaha can lead and Jake Casey on Vega Magic can either sit outside lead or trail Lusaha.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets has five runners at single figure odds, the R2W computer agrees. Currently there is some value in our top-rated horse at the time of writing (Thursday). Accordingly, the race presents as an opportunity to support our top selection.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

1. First Among Equals: Finished better than anything else in the Winterbottom after being ridden quietly early. Up to 1400m now presents no concerns for me and can run over the top of them in the straight.

Neutral Horses

3. Vega Magic: Attempts 1400m for the first time which is the obvious query however cannot be dismissed after his effort last start in the Winterbottom. Races on pace and is a definite winning chance.

Disadvantaged Horses

5. Chocolate Holic: Gets back in the small field and will be running on however his figures to date are yet to indicate he can win at this level at WFA. Some winning chance however current fixed odds make him one to avoid.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) First Among Equals at $3.10+ (1.6 units)

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