Ratings2Win: Ascot Race 7, Saturday 17th December 2016 – Ted Van Heemst Stakes,

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Feature Race Analysis

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R7 Ted Van Heemst Stakes, 2100m GP2 3YO+ WFA $252,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4 Rail is in the 3m position. Mainly sunny leading into race day on Saturday therefore we should see a track no worse than the current Good 4 rating. Winds are predicted 20-30 km/h southerly during the day so that could play a factor. The best positions in run will be most likely on pace.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Only a run of approximately 200m before runners face a bend into the back straight. Jockeys need to me mindful of finding a position early or face a potentially wide trip. Matthieu Autier crosses the field and leads on Fathoms Of Gold with Troy Turner on Tradesman following him across and most likely taking a trail. Glenn Smith on I’m Feeling Lucky and Jarrad Noske on Dark Musket face difficult tasks.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have five runners single figure odds, whereas the R2W computer has only two. Currently there is value in both our top-rated selections at the time of writing (Thursday). Accordingly, the race presents as an opportunity to support our top selection and save on our second elect.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

14. Perfect Reflection: Having her fifth run this preparation she should now be at peak fitness with three of her four runs this preparation on having been on soft ground. Whilst the step up to 2100m for the first time is an unknown, her most recent run when third behind Stratum Star and Scales of Justice suggests that she could now be looking for this trip. The key for Pike will be to try and get here to relax and in that context, should get cover behind Zarantz. Her current fixed odds quote of $3.00 appeals.

Neutral Horses

7. Tradesman: Being aimed at the Perth Cup over 2400m and is very fit having had 4 runs back this preparation. Whilst his last two runs have been a little disappointing to the eye he has the capacity to record competitive figures over this distance. Worth saving on.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Perfect Reflection at $3.00+ (1.6 units)

Back on Betfair BACK – SAVE (WIN) Tradesman at $6.50+ (0.3 unit)

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