The Ratings Bureau: Magic Millions 2YO Classic

Posted: January 14, 2017

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Race Assessment

R8 Magic Millions 2YO – 1200m 2YO Open SW 4:55pm

 

The Track

The track is currently a Good 4 (Friday) with fine weather forecast at least until the meeting finishes. The rail is out 1m from the 1000m to 400m and true for the remainder of the course.

We expect the track will race relatively evenly as a Good 3. There is a 32km/h wind forecast from the NNE, which will be blowing into their faces up the home straight. That could make it difficult for horses to make ground from well back after straightening.

Speed and Tactics 

There’s no shortage of early speed here with Madeenaty (1), Invincible Star (16), Bring It Home Pop (20) and Houtzen (21) all possessing pace. There are five emergencies in this race with four of them drawn barrier 9 or inside, so assuming there are no scratchings, the horses drawn wider than that should move in four barrier positions.

Early Pace Rating: Solid to fast

Late Pace Rating: moderate to below average

Best Suited: 2 to 4 lengths off the lead

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

Looking at the historical record of the Magic Millions race and this year’s lead up form, we expect the winner will need to run to at least a 101 WFA Performance Rating and more likely a 102 rating in order to win or at least be right in the finish.

Race Assessment

In our assessed price order:

She’s been one of the genuine stars of the 2YO season so far with a 102 rating on debut and then a 99.5 rating when eased up notably over the final 100m. She’s proven she can cruise along at strong speed and run fast overall time, which is a key recipe for success in this race. The draw is tough, but they’re often overrated in importance and there’s no better jockey in QLD than J Lloyd.

Her 101.2 rating on debut was done without being fully exerted over the final stages and being from the Waller stable you have to always expect them to take benefit from a debut run. If there is a query it’s that she controlled the race at a moderate speed last start and this will be a much different high pressure scenario, but she’s got a stack of talent and maps with an ideal run in the right zone.

You can’t knock three good wins from as many starts. She’s somewhere in the mix but will need to take a clear step up to match the top two.

Ran a big number on debut back in November, had excuses her following run, but was then a little underwhelming winning the Wyong MM race. She got an easy time in the front and only just fell in to win with just fair overall figures. In another stride or two she would have been claimed by two others that were far less suited in the run. That raises a question mark about her at a strong 1200m here.

Ran on soundly to finish third to From Within last start. That’s a strong form line for this, so he can’t be totally ruled out.

I don’t like to underestimate a Gai Waterhouse 2YO, but you can’t have them all and given she’s only coming off a 1000m win back in November with moderate speed through the line, I have to question her running up to the same level in a high pressure 1200m race.

Second emergency. He was closing off nicely when second to From Within on debut  and comes from the right stable (Snowden’s) to go on with it with the benefit of that run. He probably won’t get a start in this race, but if he does then he’s a nice longshot in the race.

Closed off nicely from a long way back behind Ours To Keep last start and should appreciate the high pressure of this race.

Had excuses in the Wyong MM, but prior form is still well short of this. Would need a big new peak.

Should definitely improve stepping up to a high pressure 1200m, but would be a surprise if she could elevate enough to be a major factor.

First emergency. Both runs this prep have been solid but this looks too hard.

Comes off a solid win at Rosehill last start, but this is too big a step.

Has won both career starts so far at Doomben, but her figures aren’t close to the level needed to be competitive here.

Beaten 2.4L behind Ours To Keep last start. This looks too tough.

Beaten in a Country class 1 race last start.

Also beaten in a Country class 1 race last start

Well beaten last start after having every chance. Outclassed.

Beaten 6.5L behind Ours To Keep last start. Outclassed.

Third emergency. Won an Ipswich 800m maiden on debut. Significantly outclassed.

Fourth emergency. Significantly outclassed.

Fifth emergency. Significantly outclassed.

Betting Strategy

Feature 2YO races are typically won by the most talented horses based on lead up form, much more so than other races. Both Houtzen and From Within come into this race with dominant ratings and we are prepared to back both, playing for the best result on Houtzen who has proven her ability with higher pressure early speed.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Houtzen at $3.80+. Stake 1.4% of your total bank

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) From Within at $3.80+. Stake 0.8% of your total bank

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Invader at $16+. Stake 0.3% of your total bank

 

 

 

TRB

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