Ratings 2 Win: Sunshine Coast, Saturday July 2nd 2016 – Sunshine Coast Guineas Race Analysis

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Feature Race Analysis

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R5 Sunshine Coast Guineas 1600m GP3 3YO SW $126,000

Track

Currently rated Soft 6, Rail is in the true position. The likelihood of dry weather leading up to Saturday could bring an upgrade to the current rating. The rail in the true position suggests that the best going might be 3+ off in the straight.

Tempo & Speed Map

The last 2 editions of this race have seen a genuine tempo prevail with Winx winning last year in devastating fashion. For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Map Notes: The 1600m commences from a Shute with only ~200m before runner’s turn slightly into the back straight. Ryan Wiggins will probably look to lead on the longshot Patronizing. Jim Byrne will need to make a decision early and will most likely be positive on Perfect Dare. Brad Pengelly on Shotacross The Bow is another who will need to push forward or face a wide trip.

Race Overview

Early markets have the Kevin Kemp trained Sold For Song as the favourite from the Mike Moroney trained Tivaci. High Spirit from the Snowden yard is the other main market chance on the 3rd line of current betting. Interestingly Damian Browne rides the Caloundra track significantly better than any of his fellow rivals lining up in this race, with a very impressive 30.2% strike rate across all odds runners in the last 12 months.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

1. Tivaci: Was caught in the worst part of the track last start yet still performed well. Will be back on the inside again which won’t be ideal however Browne is good enough to give it the right passage in the run home.

 

Neutral Horses

6. High Sprit: Will be in the right spot and gets its chance again in a similar setup to last start.

 

Disadvantaged Horses

12. Sold For Song: I have rated this horse to its best. This filly will be back near if not last and will need luck in the straight with a big field engaged. On current prices is poor value.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Tivaci at $3.50+ for 1.9 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Sold For Song up to $4.20 (lay liability up to 5% of betting bank)

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