Ratings 2 Win: Sunshine Coast, Saturday July 2nd 2016 – Caloundra Cup Race Analysis

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Feature Race Analysis

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R7 Caloundra Cup 2400m LR HCP $177,000


Currently rated Soft 6, Rail is in the true position. The likelihood of dry weather leading up to Saturday could bring an upgrade to the current rating. The rail in the true position suggests that the best going might be 3+ off in the straight.

Tempo & Speed Map

The R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average tempo.

Map Notes: The 2400m commences in the home straight with a long run to the first turn giving riders plenty of time to settle their mounts. Michael Cahill has the opportunity to lead on Puccini. Damian Browne will most likely be back worse than midfield on the inside which isn’t ideal but this horse has a turn of foot which could see it finishing hard.

Race Overview

Early markets have the David Vandyke trained Maurus as a dominant favourite. He sweated up noticeably before winning the Ipswich Cup easily last start and is a worthy favourite on that performance. Index Linked will be looking to make it back to back wins in this race. Jumbo Prince is the other main market chance. Interestingly Damian Browne rides the Caloundra track significantly better than any of his fellow rivals lining up in this race, with a very impressive 30.2% strike rate across all odds runners in the last 12 months.

Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

4. Jumbo Prince: Was a solid run last time behind Maurus and appeals as the main danger to the favourite.


Neutral Horses

2. Maurus: Is the horse to beat, but current markets have the horse very short given he gets back on the inside and is up to 2400m now. If he stays the 2400m will finish off hard.

3. Puccini: Gets a distinct map advantage and the step up to 2400m should pose no problem, rough chance at double figure odds although prefer it on a drier surface.


Disadvantaged Horses

1. Index Linked: Is very fit and was a solid win last time. Gets back which is a problem and goes up 3kg (1kg higher than last year’s narrow win). Current odds offer no edge.

10. Romantic Maid: One paced type who should have no problem with the distance but this is harder than recent races. Gets back which is a problem and like Index Linked rises 3kg and offers no edge at current prices.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Jumbo Prince at $6.50+ for 0.9 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Puccini at $16+ for 0.2 units

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