The Rating Bureau Early Market Overlays: Caulfield, 27th August 2016 – Memsie Stakes Day

Posted: August 26, 2016

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Early Market Overlays

 

Rail: Out 6m entire circuit

Weather: Forecast to be sunny 16c

Pattern: Even with some prospect that on pace / handy runners will be best suited. The combination of form / talent and a positive in run position will be hard to beat.

 

R1 1400m 3YOF BM78

Leotie  (Market $2.00 – Assessed $1.65)

Comes off an super last start run in the Quezette when not that well suited being a mile back in the field with just even pace up front, but she sprinted home in outstanding sustained sectionals to just miss behind I Am A Star.  Her speed indicators highlight her as a filly of some promise, especially as she steps up in distance which she does here going from 1100m to 1400m.

She earned a WFA Performance rating of 97.8 out of that run, which is well and truly clear of any of the opposition in this race, without allowing for potential improvement up to 1400m.

In this small field she’ll be no more than a few lengths off the lead and has the turn of foot to round them up and win impressively. The current market price around $2.00 appeals as terrific value.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Leotie for 3.3% stake of bank

 

R2 1400m Open Hcp

Prince of Brooklyn (Market $2.70 – Assessed $2.20)

He’s come back in terrific form this campaign, finally breaking through last start for a well deserved win over this track and distance.  We expect him to settle just forward of midfield here and his big fitness advantage over some of the other market chances combined with the quality & consistency in his ratings presents an appealing betting profile.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Prince of Brooklyn for 2.3% stake of bank

 

R5 1100m Open G3 SWP

Hellbent (market $7.00 – assessed $5.00)

He won first up at Sandown last start for new Trainer Darren Weir and at today’s weights, his 97 rating from that run puts him right among the leading chances in this. The key for us though is that both his sectional indicators and the general pattern of the stable suggest that he has improvement to come.

He might just be on an upward spiral this preparation, set to fulfil the early potential he showed under old trainer Kurt Goldman. With that in mind and that fact that Damien Oliver has been booked, the current market price stands out as great value.

Betting Stategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Hellbent for 1.2% stake of bank

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