Randwick, Saturday 9th April 2016: The Betfair Insider – Arrowfield Sprint + Queen Of The Turf

Posted: April 8, 2016

Current Track Rating: Soft

Rail: +6m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 8th – Max 23°C. Shower or two.

Saturday 9th – Max 25°C. Partly cloudy

 

R5 Arrowfield 3YO Sprint (Royal Sovereign) 3YO SWP 1200m Group 2

Speed Map

Arrowfield 3YO

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have been first up
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been back in distance from their previous start
  • 4 of past 5 winners have 3 weeks or more between runs
  • 0 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Heavy, Rail +3m

1st Delectation – BR 9 56.5kg SP$8.50 – 4th up, 4 weeks, 7th Newmarket Hcp Group 1 1200m Flemington

2nd Bring Me The Maid – BR 4 54.5kg SP $8 – 1st up, 23 weeks, 11th Coolmoore Stud Stakes Group 1 1200m Flemington

3rd Rekindled Power – BR 2 56.5 SP $20 – 1st up, 21 weeks, 6th Sandown Guineas Group 2 1600m Sandown

Soft, Rail +6m

1st Sidestep – BR 4 56.5kg SP $4.60 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 1st Derby Munro Stakes Listed 1200m Rosehill

2nd Bounding – BR 11 54.5kg SP $4 – 2nd up, 6 weeks, 1st NZTBA Trophy Group 3 1200m Elleslie

3rd In Cahoots – BR 5 56.5kg SP $26 – 4th up, 2 week, 1st Gosford Guineas Listed 1200m Gosford

Soft, Rail +3m – Rosehill

1st Rebel Dane – BR 4 53kg SP $19 – 1st up, 16 weeks, 1st 3Y BM72 1300m Rosehill

2nd Urquidez – BR 2 57kg SP $3.50 – 1st up, 24 weeks, 5th Up & Coming Stakes Group 3 1300m Warwick Farm

3rd Taxmeifyoucan – BR 14 53kg SP $11 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 5th 3Y BM72 1200m Rosehill

Hot Snitzel – BR 11 56kg SP $4.80 – 1st up, 16 weeks, 6th Coolmoore Stud Stks Group 1 1200m Flemington

Master Harry – BR 3 56kg SP $6 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 2nd 3Y HCP 1000m Moonee Valley

Major Players 

1. Japonisme: Chris Waller’s talented sprinter Japonisme has done all his racing in Melbourne this campaign. More importantly, he’s been racing in the highest company against older horses contesting three Group 1’s including the Lightning, Newmarket and William Reid Stakes.

While none of the above mentioned Group 1’s have rated above average, Japonisme is going to find this race classes and classes below what he’s been contesting. He meets the rest of the field at set weights and is the ‘class sprinter’ dropping back in grade. He’s a horse that thrives on racing and has a fantastic fitness base to get through the testing Randwick track but looks too short at $3.50 in early markets as this race is well and truly an afterthought.

2. Counterattack: He’s run two nice races this time in with a 2.8L third in the Eskimo Prince and a 1.4L fifth in the Darby Munro. He already has a win over the likes of Spill The Beans and Hellbent in the Brian Crowley Stakes back in October so he certainly can feature here.

Chris Waller has applied the blinkers, which is a great sign of intent however I would prefer him over 1400m as he starts to mature as a horse.

6. Spill The Beans: The Eskimo Prince winner found the 1400m of the Hobartville a bridge to far over the final200m, and drops back to his beloved 1200m. He’s trialled nicely between runs and a repeat of his Eskimo Prince win can see him figure in the finish.

7. Hellbent: He looks a ‘dangerous’ commodity returning here with 12 weeks between runs, however, his past two starts have been in Inglis races and lacks the strength in his formlines and ratings to be able to put him ahead of this field of 3YO’s.  The profile leans towards horses first or second up so think twice about laying him.

12. Petits Filous: She’s the most promising sprinting 3YO filly in the country. She’s built a fantastic record of five wins from six starts with her only failure being when tested against the toughest sprinters in Australia when tenth in the G1 Moir Stakes on a firm rated surface at The Valley.

Her first up win was her highest rating to date. She managed to defy a betting drift and poor weight swing to hold off the fast finishing but poorly credentialed Grey Street. She has a bad habit of racing keenly which is a negative as she steps up to 1200m but hopefully her first up run has taken that keen edge off her. Her spiralling profile knows no boundaries and she’s well suited on a shifting surface.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Petits Filous – 5 units at $4 or more.

R8 Coolmore Legacy Queen of the Turf 1600m Group 1 WFA F&M

Speed Map

queen of the turf 0904

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have come via the Emancipation Stakes
  • 2 of past 5 winners have come via the Canterbury Stakes
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 3rd up or deeper into their preparation
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Soft, Rail +3m

1st Amanpour – BR 3 57kg SP $21 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 2nd Emancipation Stakes Group 2 1200m Rosehill

2nd Catkins – BR 10 57kg SP $4 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 1st Emancipation Stakes Group 2 1200m Rosehill

3rd Noble Protector – BR 7 57kg SP $5.50 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 1st Sunline Stakes Group 2 1600m Moonee Valley

Soft, Rail +6m

1st Diamond Drille – BR 2 57kg SP $41 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 4th Emancipation Stakes Group 2 1200m Rosehill

2nd Gypsy Diamond – BR 9 54.5kg SP $8 – 5th up, 1 week, 1st Carbine Club Stakes Group 3 1600m Randwick

3rd Red Tracer – BR 5 57kg SP $4.80 – 4th up, 3 week, 10th George Ryder Stakes Group 1 1500m Rosehill

Soft, Rail +3m – Rosehill

1st Appearance – BR 6 57kg SP $10 – 4th up, 3 weeks, 1st Coolmore Classic Group 1500m Rosehill

2nd Red Tracer – BR 10 57kg SP $7 – 4th up, 3 weeks, 2nd Coolmore Classic Group 1500m Rosehill

3rd Streama – BR9 57kg SP $14 – 4th up, 3 weeks, 7th Coolmore Classic Group 1500m Rosehill

More Joyous – BR 7 57kg SP $1.55 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st Canterbury Stakes Group 2 1300m Rosehill

More Joyous – BR 3 56kg SP $6 – 4th up, 3 weeks, 1st Canterbury Stakes Group 2 1300m Rosehill

Major Players 

1. Suavito: The classy Suavito returned from a long layoff with a devastating win in the C.F Orr Stakes at Group 1 level. She continued to run bold races against the males in the Futurity and Australian Cup, beaten narrowly in both events. She’s been freshened up here and only needs luck in running to figure strongly here.

3. Azkadellia: She joins Vergara on the seven-day backup from the Doncaster. She ran a terrific race in the worst part of the track, finishing third to champion Winx. She jumps 7kg under Weight-For-Age conditions but is deserved of it having run second in the Coolmore and third in the Myer Classic. She’s raced well on the seven-day backup in the past so she only needs to hold her form to win. Last week appeared like a gut buster so I think she’s a slight risk at the price.

6. Zanbagh: The winner of the Emancipation has won the last two renewals of the Queen of the Turf which bodes well for Zanbagh. She won the logical lead up race, has drawn well, gets the sting out of the track and the mile suits. She ticks all the boxes and fits the profile perfectly but looks a touch short at $7 in a very deep race.

8. Artistry: She’s a progressive mare and is winning races against the profile. Her latest win was against the pattern on the day and has taken her winning record to 50% now. She’s already a winner at 1600m is trained by the all-conquering Snowden team and if there’s no further rain she’s a big threat.

12. Heavens Above: She’s won the Aspiration and Epona which are good lead up races to the Queen of the Turf. She ran a huge second to Vergara who went on to win a good race in the Doncaster and looks a good each way chance despite mapping so far back in her races.

14. Badawiya: A high class 3yo filly that can handle all surfaces. She comes here after an OK performance when fourth in the Emancipation Stakes after being checked before the home turn. She never looked comfortable from that moment on so I expect her to improve drawn wide and out to a mile. A big chance to rebound if given the right run in transit.

16. Risqué: Already a Group 1 winner in New Zealand and it only looks a matter of time before she claims a big one on Australian soil. She rated highly in the Australian Guineas behind Palentino and didn’t appear to run a strong 2000m in the vinery. The profile is against horses dropping back in distance which is very hard to ignore.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Suavito – 1.5 units at $10 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Artistry – 1.5 unit at $13 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Badawiya – 1.5 unit at $10 or more

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider