Randwick, Saturday 6th February 2016: The Betfair Insider

Posted: February 5, 2016 at 9:33 am

Betfair Insider

 

 

Current Track Rating: Heavy 8

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 5th – Max 25°C. 40% Chance of showers 0 to 1mm.  

Saturday 6th – Max 26°C. Cloudy.

 

R4 Breeders Classic G2 4YO Mares SW+ P 1200m

Speed Map

randwick 0602

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have been first up
  • 5 of past 5 winners have carried 55.5kg or more
  • 2 of past 5 winners have come through the Myer Classic last start
  • 4 of past 5 winners raced in group company at the start prior

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

2015 (Rosehill) Good 3, Rail +3m

1st Catkins – SP $2.10F 57kg BR 8 – 1st up, 11 weeks, 3rd Myer Classic G1 1600m Flemington

2nd Lilliburlero – SP $10 55kg BR 9 – 3rd up, 7 weeks, 5th Starlight Stakes Listed 1100m Rosehill

3rd Mihiri – SP $5.5 54kg BR 3 – 4th up, 2 weeks, F&M BM80 1200m Randwick

 

2014 (Rosehill) Soft 5, Rail +3m

1st Catkins – SP $ 3.90 55.5kg BR1 – 1st up, 11 weeks, 2nd Myer Classic G1 1600m Flemington

2nd Steps In Time – SP $6.5 57kg BR 6 – 1st up, 12 week let up, 8th Yellowglen Stakes G2 1200m Flemington

3rd White Sage – SP $2.4F 54kg BR 3 – 1st up, 9 week let up, 1st Festival Stakes Listed 1500m Rosehill

 

2013 (Rosehill) Soft 5, Rail +3m

1st Steps In Time – SP $2.6 57kg BR 5 – 1st up, 10 week let up, 8th Herald Sun Stakes G3 1400m Flemington

2nd Red Tracer – SP $2.45F 57.5kg BR 2 – 1st up, 11 weeks, 10th Myer Classic G1 1600m Flemington

3rd Choice Words – SP $9 54kg BR 7 – 4th up, 6 week freshen up, 9th F&M BM85 1400m Warwick Farm

 

2012 – 1st Steps In Time – SP $7 56kg BR 4 – 2nd up, 3 weeks,1st Sizzler Classic 1250m Canterbury

2011 – 1st More Joyous – SP $1.30F 57.5kg BR 1 – 1st up, 12 wk let up, 5th Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

 

Major Players

1. Amicus: She presents first up from an 11 week let up with two trials under her belt. She files fresh and is already a Group 2 winner. She won first and second up last preparation racing in career best form. She didn’t have much luck with barriers but her performance in the Myer Classic at her last start was first class. Class mare’s dominate this race looking at the profile and provided the track is slow or better she’s the standout.

3 Dublin Lass: This is the progressive and in form mare of the field. Her profile is not dissimilar to Mihiri (3rd) and White Sage (3rd) who failed to get the job done against the more seasoned Catkins over the past two years. Her last two starts in the Starlight Stakes & Razor Sharp indicate she’s at the top of her game but I expect her to drift from $2.40 to above $3.00 despite being the obvious leader in the race.

4. I’ve Got The Looks: She’s not unlike Dublin Lass. In fact, she’s already had a win over her in last year’s Juanmo Stakes at Doomben when she gave her 3kg. This time they meet at level weights so I’d lean her way of the Snowden pair. She’s a genuine sprinter who flies fresh with 1200m her pet distance. In a race with few chances her recent form is good enough to go very close. The 29 days between runs suits and she relishes sting out of the ground.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Amicus – 4 units at $4.00+

 

 

R7 Eskimo Prince G3 SW + P 1200m

Speed Map

randwick 0602 2

 

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have been First Up
  • 7 of past 9 placegetters have been First Up
  • 3 of past 5 winners have race in Group 1 or 2 company at the start prior

 

Previous Winners & Lead-Up Result

2015 (Rosehill) Good 3, Rail +3m

1st Scissor Kick – SP $6 58.5kg BR 3 – 1st up, 11 weeks, 9th Coolmoore Stud Stakes G1 1200m Flemington

2nd Delectation – SP $3.6 57kg BR 6 – 1st up, 11 weeks, 2nd Coolmoore Stud Stakes G1 1200m Flemington

3rd Harrier Jet – SP $9.5 56kg BR 1 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 2nd BM80 1400m Rosehill

 

2014 (Rosehill) Soft 5, Rail +3m

1st El Roca – SP $ 2.5F 58kg BR5 – 1st up, 18 weeks, 9th Doncaster Handicap G1 1600m Randwick

2nd Dissident – SP $3.4 58kg BR 4 – 1st up, 18 weeks, 5th Caulfield Guineas G1 1600m Caulfield

3rd Romantic Touch – SP $16 60kg BR 6 – 1st up, 18 weeks, 5th Caulfield Guineas Prelude G3 1400m Caulfield

 

2013 (Rosehill) Soft 5, Rail +3m

1st Ichihara – SP $9 58kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 4 weeks, 2nd Light Fingers Stakes G2 1200m Rosehill

2nd Heart Testa – SP $2.75F 54.5kg BR 2 – 1st up, 10 weeks let up, 1st 3Y BM74 1300m Warwick Farm

3rd Limes – SP $13 55kg BR 5 – 1st up, 16 weeks let up, 2nd Hilton Stakes Listed 1400m Flemington

 

2012 – 1st Nobby Snip – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st Fireball Stakes Listed 1100m Rosehill

2011 – 1st Agister – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 6th BM75 1100m Rosehill

 

Major Players

1. Pride Of Dubai: He’s first up after over 40 weeks off. The two trials have been fair this time in, but Snowden’s have a method of not ‘showing off’ their trial horses. He always promised to make a better 3YO than he did a 2YO and is already a duel Group 1 winner but there has been a lingering doubt over that form. Not too many horses line up in the Eskimo Prince as duel Group 1 winners and I expect the Snowden’s to have this bloke ready to fire.

3. Counterattack: He’s a listed winner with an imposing 1st up record two wins from four starts, yet to miss a place fresh. The blinkers come off but he won without them last time in. The 98 days between runs has become a specialty for the Waller stable. He has the capacity to fly the gates so it will be interesting to see where he maps in running without blinkers. Proven on Slow.

9. Spill The Beans: Returns from a 12-week break. He’s a fierce going type that was placed at listed level behind Counterattack. He’s trialled well and will be in it for a long way but the rail true at Randwick will make it a big ask first up.

11. Cannyescent: He got the job done at Randwick after having to switch back to the inside section of the straight. Spill The Beans will make this a truly run race, which will allow Cannyescent a chance to relax and finish off. He’s always looked a talented horse and Group 3 level isn’t beyond him. He’ll be spotting the leaders a big start but has the fitness edge.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Pride Of Dubai – 2 units at $4+

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Wolf Cry – Lay to lose 10 units

 

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider