Randwick, Saturday 5th March 2016: The Betfair Insider

Posted: March 3, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 4th – Max 29°C. Partly cloudy.

Saturday 5th – Max 30°C. Sunny.

 

R2 Todman Stakes G2 SW C&G 2YO 1200m

Speed Map

Todman Stakes

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners were last start winners.
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn between barriers 1-3
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

2015 Good, Rail +3m

1st Vancouver – BR 3 55.5kg SP $4.60 – 2nd up, 5 weeks, 1st Canonbury Stakes Group 3 1100m Rosehill

2nd Furnaces – BR 2 55.5kg SP $4.40 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 2nd Lonhro Plate Listed 1100m Randwick

3rd Headwater – BR 5 55.5kg SP $1.75 fav – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st Silver Slipper Stakes Group 2 1100m Rosehill

 

2014 *Rosehill, Good, Rail True

1st Ghibellines – BR 6 55.5kg SP $41 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 5th Black Opal Stakes Listed 1200m Canberra

2nd Unencumbered – BR 2 55.5kg SP $3.20 – 6th up, 3 weeks, 5th Silver Slipper Stakes Group 2 1100m Rosehill

3rd Cornrow – BR 1 55.5kg $10 – 4th up, 4 weeks, 3rd Blue Diamond Stakes Group 1 1200m Caulfield

 

2013 *Rosehill Good, Rail True

1st Criterion – BR 2 55.5kg SP $6 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st Black Opal Stakes Listed 1200m Canberra

2nd Fast ‘n’ Rocking – BR 7 55.5kg SP $9 – 4th up, 4 weeks, 2nd Blue Diamond Stakes Group 1 1200m Caulfield

3rd Havana – BR 6 55.5kg SP $31 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 7th Lonhro Plate Listed 1100m Randwick

 

2012 Pierro – BR 3 55.5kg SP $2.05F – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st Silver Slipper Stakes Group 2 1100m Rosehill

2011 Smart Missile – BR 2 55.5kg SP $21 – 1st up, 22 weeks, 1st Breeders Plate Listed 1000m Randwick

 

Major Players 

1. Capitalist: He returned to the trials after a 6 week freshen up on the 19th of February and coasted across the line against older horses at Randwick. Only last years Golden Slipper placegetter English was able to get past him and she was slipped a touch more reign than Capitalist who was ridden with a tight grip by Blake Shinn.

His form is faultless. He took out the Breeders Plate with ease, the Wyong Magic Millions under a strangle hold before coasting home in the 2YO Magic Millions feature at the Gold Coast. He is without doubt the benchmark 2YO in Sydney and appears to be holding together well after a reasonably long preparation.

Drawn perfectly in 5, he’ll drift back to last and look to come home over the top of them in the best part (middle) of the track.

2. Astern: One of two Godolphin runners, Astern returned to the races two weeks ago in the Silver Slipper with a narrow victory over Defcon and Mount Panorama. They went out 5L below benchmark and was given every conceivable chance to win.

The question on that race is how did Mount Panorama get so close to him (1.3L) after bungling the start? The jury is out on that race however from all reports he had plenty of improvement to come and the stable rider (James McDonald) has taken the ride.

3. Tessera: He was headed by Defcon in the Canonbury 35 days ago before fighting back strongly to win by 1.5L. If he is headed by Capitalist on Saturday, you can be assured he won’t be able to kick back as easily as he did last time. Bowman picks up the ride after McDonald selected Astern.

He’s trialled since to keep him up to the mark but I think he needs to find a few lengths to get close to Capitalist.

4. Defcon: He’s also entered for the Black Opal on Sunday and is mostly likely to line up there. He’s an honest 2YO who appears a length or two below his rivals and about 4 lengths below his stablemate Capitalist.  

5. Weatherly: He adds a bit of interest to the race making the trip up to Sydney after two runs in Victoria. He won the Listed Talindert with ease last start however in hindsight it looks as though he found the ‘extreme’ fast lane on the day. Improver with new form so expect there to be money for him.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Capitalist – 10 units at $1.50+

 

R5 Canterbury Stakes G1 WFA 3YO+ 1300m

Speed Map

Canterbury Stakes

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners have been third up
  • 0 of past 5 winners have come through same race (at their last start)
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite

 

Previous Winners & Lead-Up Result

2015 Good, Rail +3m

1st Cosmic Endeavour – BR 1 57kg SP $3.30F – 3rd up, 7 days, 2nd Guy Walter Stakes G3 1400m Warwick Farm

2nd Catkins – BR 3 57kg SP$4.40 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 2nd Millie Fox Stakes Group 2 1300m Rosehill

3rd Criterion – BR4 59kg SP $12 – 1st up, 12 week let up, HK Cup Group 1 2000m Sha Tin


2014 Good, Rail True

1st Appearance – BR 10 57kg SP $5.50 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 1st Apollo Stakes Group 2 1400m Randwick

2nd Not Listenin’tome – BR 6 56kg SP $4.40 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st Zeditave Stakes Group 3 1200m Caulfield

3rd Red Tracer – BR 7 57kg SP $3.40 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st Millie Fox Stakes Group 2 1300m Rosehill

 

2013 Good, Rail True

1st Pierro – BR7 56kg SP $2F – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st Hobartville Stakes Group 2 1400m Rosehill

2nd More Joyous – BR 4 57kg SP $4.20 – 1st up, 14 weeks, 11th Cox Plate Group 1 2040m Moonee Valley

3rd Solzhenitsyn – BR 6 59kg $51 – 1st up, 17 weeks, 6th Emirates Stakes Group 1 1600m Flemington

 

2012 More Joyous – BR 7 57kg SP $2.90F – 1st up, 18 weeks, 7th Myer Classic Group 1 1600m Flemington

2011 More Joyous – BR 5 57kg SP $1.30F – 3rd up, 3 weeks, Futurity Stakes Group 1 1400m Caulfield

 

Major Players 

1. Criterion: Australasia’s ‘international globetrotter’ returns home after a disappointing 9th in the Group 1 Hong Kong Cup. It’s the same lead up run he had last year when placing 3rd to Cosmic Endeavour. He reminded us of his class at Weight-For-Age level by winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes over 2000m first up from a European campaign against the elite. He was flying last preparation and backed that win up with an unlucky 2nd to Winx in the Cox Plate. The 1300m poses a big question but David Hayes is very good with class horses first up fresh and his stud value will soar with a G1 win over 1300m.

2. Kermadec: Returns from a 14 week spell with two impressive trials under his belt. Only 1 of the past 5 winners of this race have been first up, however the two favourites have a number of challenges to overcome themselves. Hugh Bowman gets the ride over regular jock Glen Boss with blinkers applied for the first time and the synthetic hoof filler has been removed, these are all positive moves. After coming up short last campaign when stretched out to 2000m I think Chris Waller will keep Kermadec at shorter trips making him lethal between 1300m-1600m.

3. Our Boy Malachi: He returned from a bleeding attack with an impressive (and soft) win in the Group 2 Expressway Stakes over 1200m. He was practically gifted the win after Solicit and Tiger Tee’s were happy to ‘hand up’ the lead. He’ll lead and control again but has to deal with the 1300m at Randwick for the first time. He’s biggest test to date and I’m happy to be against him at the early market price of $3.40.

5. Happy Clapper: The progressive Happy Clapper returns with just the one trial under his belt after taking out the Group 2 Villiers Stakes back in December. He’s treated poorly at the weights and I’ll expect him to need this run and look for him second or third up. Watch.

6. First Seal: An impressive return when winning the Millie Fox Stakes two weeks ago. While she hasn’t raced the boys since October 2014 she gets her chance against a vulnerable group of males who will improve with racing. We know she had the better of Winx at a 3YO so I expect her to be able to measure up at this level. I expect her to drift from $2.80 in early markets.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Kermadec – 5 units at $5+

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Criterion – 1.5 units at $9+

 

R7 Randwick Guineas G1 3YO SW 1600m

Speed Map

randwick guineas

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners used Hobartville Stakes as lead up run (3 of 5 won 2011, 2014 & 2015)
  • 4 of past 5 winners SP < 4.20
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 3rd up or 4th up
  • 1 of past 5 winners a filly (2012 Mosheen)

 

Previous Winners & Lead-Up Result

2015 Good, Rail +3m

1st Hallowed Crown – BR 1 56.5kg SP 2.90 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Hobartville Stakes G2 1400m Rosehill

2nd Sweynesse – BR 6 56.5kg SP 3.90 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd Hobartville Stakes G2 1400m Rosehill

3rd Shooting To Win – BR 2 56.5kg SP 2.50 fav – 2nd up, 2 weeks 4th Hobartville Stakes G2 1400m Rosehill


2014 Good, Rail True

1st Dissident – BR 12 56.5kg SP $11 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Hobartville Stakes G2 1400m Rosehill

2nd El Roca- BR 56.5kg SP 3.20 fav – 3rd up, 1 week 2nd Liverpool City Cup G3 1300m Warwick Farm

3rd Eurozone – BR 56.5kg SP $8 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Australian Guineas G1 1600m Flemington

 

2013 Good, Rail True

1st it’s A Dundeel – BR 3 56.5kg SP 1.30 fav – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Hobartville Stakes G2 1400m Rosehill

2nd Proisir – BR 3 56.5kg SP 3.50 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 3rd Hobartville Stakes G2 1400m Rosehill

3rd Tatra – BR 11 56.5 SP 26 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 9th Hobartville Stakes G2 1400m Rosehill

 

2012 Mosheen – BR 12 54.5kg SP 4.20 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st  Australian Guineas G1 1600m Flemington

2011 Ilovethiscity – BR 4 56.5kg SP 3.50 fav – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Hobartville Stakes G2 1400m Rosehill

 

Major Players 

1. Press Statement: Dual G1 winner at 1600m (Caulfield Guineas 3yo & JJ Atkins 2yo). Returned with authority in the G2 Hobartville Stakes to win by 2.3 lengths running away from his opposition. Looks better suited up to a mile and the trainer reports he’s a bigger and stronger horse this time in.

He has the tactical speed to take up a forward position almost identical to his position in running in the Hobartville last start, despite being drawn wide in Barrier 12. Natural improvement (which there is typically in Waller trained runners) makes him very hard to beat but it is possible that with interference or a torrid run in transit others could get close to the colt. This race has one of the strongest profiles on the calendar and this he’s the standout.

7. Montaigne: Making huge progress with only four starts to his name. Was unsuited last start dropping back from 1600m to 1400m but passed the test with flying colours recording the fastest last 200m split in 11.16. He gets a charmed run in transit and with the right splits he can figure late. Expecting his price to remain around the $10-12 mark and could balloon to a big ‘In Play’ price on the exchange given his pattern of racing. Improver.

8. Tulsa: Lacks early speed in his races so it was great to see him settle further back second up in the CS Hayes after poor tactics first up in the Manfred stakes. He finished off well last start in a muddling tempo that has been well documented in the media with Tivaci winning on protest over Palentino. He made significant ground in the Caulfield Guineas (in the worst part of the track) over the mile last preparation to finish 4.25 lengths behind Press Statement. Needs to go to the next level and I’m not certain that he’s improved as much as Press Statement has this time in.

13. Stay With Me: Class filly who’s pattern of get back and run on has cost her at her first two starts this preparation.  That’s probably going to be the case again this time but looking at her performances in the 1000 Guineas and Myer Classic last spring she’s a filly that’s clearly looking for races with solid tempo up front. She looks too short in early markets at $8-9 so expect her to drift. Knockout if the stars align.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Press Statement – 10 units at $1.50+

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

 

RSP

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