Randwick, Saturday 27th February 2016: The Betfair Insider Trial Analysis

Posted: February 26, 2016

Track: Good 4

Rail: +6m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 26th – Max 29, partly cloudy

Saturday 27th – Max 27, a shower or two, 4-20mm

 

R4 Sweet Embrace Stakes G2 2yo F SW 1200m Group 2

A strong pace looks guaranteed when a number of fast fillies contest the Group 2 Sweet Embrace Stakes. The rail in the +6m position can lead to an on pace and inside bias at Randwick. The dryer it is the more advantageous it will be to lead on Saturday.

Speed Map

sweet embrace

Major Players

1. Twist Tops: She took out the Inglis Classic after running second to Scarlet Rain a fortnight earlier. She looks to strike a dry track for the first time this prep and has fitness on her side. She’ll be in the finish.

2. Scarlet Rain: She’s been doing a great job for her connections and those punters who have followed her two debut starts. She seems a little one dimensional, with a jump and run style but to her credit she has beaten her rivals with relative ease. She loses Tim Clark and is replaced by Kathy O’Hara. She also steps out to 1200m and is off a wide draw which is another big concern.

3. Smart Amelia: A game second in the Widden Stakes and should only improve from that run. The form around the Widden (placegetters) has been suspect but she’s shown talent at the trials.

7. In The Vanguard: She showed plenty of talent at the trials and justified the wraps with an impressive and dominate all the way win. She ran a similar time if the older horses on the same day and should improve from the run. She looks a strong chance.

11. Palomino: ‘First up second prep’ can be a valuable betting proposition for punters and that’s exactly what we have with Palomino returning for the Godolphin yard. She ran a nice fourth at the midweeks and has returned this time in with an impressive barrier trial win at Warwick Farm.

12. Alluvion: She was luckless on debut and stuck on gamely, not finishing far behind Twist Tops in the Gimcrack. She trialled well this time in and presents as a good outside chance.

13. Zenalicious: Les Bridge debuts this filly at Group 2 level and she managed to hold out Tessera at the trials who went on to win the Canonbury. She’ll need to be good to win on debut but respecting.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Scarlet Rain – To lose 10 units