Randwick, Saturday 16th April 2016: The Betfair Insider – Champagne Stakes, All Aged Stakes + Frank Packer Plate

Posted: April 15, 2016 at 9:53 am

Current Track Rating: Soft

Rail: +9m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 15th – Max 25°C. Partly Cloudy.

Saturday 16th – Max 26°C.Partly Cloudy

 

R3 Frank Packer Plate 3YO SW 2000m Group 3

Speed Map

Frank Packer Plate

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have come through the Carbine Club Stakes
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barriers 1-3
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite
  • 3 of past 5 winners have raced at 2000m at their previous start
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 2 weeks between runs

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

(Soft, Rail +8m)

1st Hi World – BR 7 56.5kg SP $2.30F – 4th up, 2 weeks, 1st Carbine Club Stakes Group 3 1600m Randwick

2nd Wine Tales – BR 5 54.5kg $4.80 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 6th Adrian Knox Stakes Group 3 2000m Randwick

3rd Merion – BR 3 56.5kg SP $4 – 5th up, 3 weeks, 3rd Tulloch Stakes Group 2 200m Rosehill

(Soft, Rail +9m)

1st Arabian Gold – BR 2 54.5kg SP $2.15F – 5th up, 2 weeks, 1st Adrian Knox Stakes Group 3 2000m Randwick

2nd Pheidon – BR 1 56.5kg SP $8.50 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 6th Tulloch Stakes Group 2 200m Rosehill

3rd Malice – BR 7 56.5kg SP $9 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 9th Carbine Club Stakes Group 3 1600m Randwick

2013 (Good, Rail +6m)

1st Usainity – BR 3 56.5kg SP $9 – 3rd up, 4 weeks, 2nd Manawatu Classic Group 3 2000m Awapuni

2nd Honorius – BR 2 56.5kg SP $17 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 4th Carbine Club Stakes Group 3 1600m Randwick

3rd Kingdoms – BR 1 56.5kg SP $12 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 3rd ATC Derby Group 1 2400m Randwick

Fat Al – BR 2 56.5kg SP $2F – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st Carbine Club Stakes Group 3 1600m Randwick

Shootoff – BR 2 56.5kg SP $21 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 3rd Tulloch Stakes Group 2 200m Rosehill

Major Players 

1. Old North: Old North had plenty to do on paper when stepping up from the 1500m of the Phar Lap Stakes to the 2000m of the Tulloch but handled the step up with aplomb. That leaves him three weeks between runs whereas the majority of the field are only two weeks between runs. Looking at the profile of the past five winners, two weeks between runs is a much more successful lead up for the Frank Packer Plate.

2. Torgersen: After running a fantastic second to Old North in the Phar Lap, the Chris Waller colt was asked to back up in the Group 1 ATC Derby over 2400m. He found that too much of an ask but Waller has opted to drop him back to the 2000m of the Frank Packer Plate some 2 weeks later. Good trainers can keep horses up for a long time and Chris Waller is well above average.

3. He’s Our Rokkii: He won the Carbine Club Stakes last start, which has provided the winner of the Frank Packer Plate twice in the past 5 years. He’s stepping up 400m in distance which doesn’t look a problem however I have to question the depth of this year’s Frank Packer Plate with a relatively low rating result, much lower (some 5 lengths) that the Phar Lap which was won by Old North.

9. Asinara: One of just three fillies in the field. She was simply outclassed in the Group 1 Vinery over 2000m but still only beaten 3.5L. On raw numbers she rates only second to Old North but at the $4.40 the market has found her. She is a good chance of bouncing back into the winners circle.

 

Betting Strategy

Old North defied the profile last start having to overcome a number of factors and I think that was the sign of a horse well and truly on the rise.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Old North – 5 units at $2 or more

 

R5 Champagne Stakes 2yo 1600m Group 1

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • Sires Produce form > any other lead up!

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Pasadena Girl – BR 4 54.5kg SP $2.80 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th Sires Produce 1400m Randwick

Go Indy Go – BR 6 54.5kg SP $7.00 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Sires Produce 1400m Randwick

Guelph – BR 6 54.5kg SP $2.5 – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st Sires Produce 1400m Randwick

Pierro – BR 6 56.5kg SP $1.22 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Sires Produce 1400m Randwick

Helmet – BR 6 56.5kg SP $5.5 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Sires Produce 1400m Randwick

Major Players 

4. El Sicario: Runner up in the G1 Sires Produce 1400m in New Zealand on a Heavy 10. Looks well suited rising to a mile and but will need luck from a wide draw. I expect he’s capable of running top 3 if he can find himself in the right part of the track with cover.

6. Divine Prophet: No luck on debut on Boxing Day then was sent straight to the paddock. His last start win at Kembla Grange after running 3 wide in transit proved he has class and good level of acceleration. Would prefer another run before stepping up 1200m to 1600m and wouldn’t be surprised if he showed up in Queensland.

7. Obscura: Was the run of the race in the G3 Baillieu Handicap running the fastest splits 800m to home. That form was been franked by Prized Icon winning the Fernhill last Saturday but this is another big step up again. He’ll run 1600m on his ear and will be a better 3yo. But with the favourite out I’m happy to back him each-way in weak renewal.

10. Faraway Town: Tough filly that’s done plenty of racing since her debut in late October. Although she comes through the right form race I’m a little wary that she might not have much left in the tank. The breed are airborne and hopefully she returns a good horse in her next preparation.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Obscura – 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Obscura – 3 units

R7 All Aged Stakes 3YO+ WFA 1400m Group 1

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have come through the Futurity Stakes
  • 2 of past 5 winners have had their last start at Randwick
  • 3 of past 5 winners have SP’d $10 or more
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 6 or wider

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Soft, Rail +8m

1st Dissident – BR 6 59kg SP $10 – 4th up, 7 weeks, 3rd Futurity Stakes Group 1 1400m Caulfield

2nd Wandjina – BR 12 56.5kg SP $7.50 – 3rd up, 6 weeks, 1st Australian Guineas Group 1 1600m Flemington

3rd Chautauqua – BR 1 59kg SP $3.00 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st TJ Smith Group 1 1200m Randwick

Soft, Rail +9m

1st Hana’s Goal – BR 6 57kg SP $10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 6th Doncaster Handicap Group 1 1600m Randwick

2nd Weary – BR 8 59kg SP $5.50 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 3rd Doncaster Handicap Group 1 1600m Randwick

3rd Tiger Tees – BR 2 59kg SP $7 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 4th TJ Smith Group 1 Group 1 1200m Randwick

Good, Rail +6m

1st All Too Hard – BR 4 53kg SP $19 – 3rd up, 8 weeks, 1st Futurity Stakes Group 1 1400m Caulfield

2nd Rain Affair – BR 2 57kg SP $3.50 – 3rd up, 6 weeks, 4th TJ Smith Group 1 1200m Randwick

3rd Fiorente – BR 14 53kg SP $11 – 1st up, 24 weeks, 1st Melbourne Cup Group 1 3200m Flemington

Atlantic Jewel – BR 1 54.5kg SP $1.12 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st Sapphire Stakes Group 2 1200m Randwick

Hay List – BR 7 57kg SP $2.40 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 2nd TJ Smith Group 1 Group 1 1200m Randwick

Major Players 

1. Kermadec: He put in an unusually poor run in the Doncaster when finishing 17L away from the mighty mare Winx. Prior to that he ran well in the Canterbury Stakes and the George Ryder, both first rate form lines. Back to his best he would prove hard to beat but it would to take a brave punter to back up off the Doncaster run.

2. Black Heart Bart: Victorian trained gallopers have a good record in this race and Black Heart Bart fits the mould. Since transferring from WA to Victoria the Weir trained gelding has run a brilliant second in the Group 1 Newmarket before a powerful win in the Victorian Handicap. He stays at 1400m for his third up run here and his best performances are at this distance.

4. Malaguerra: He has two big hurdles to overcome on Saturday. One is that it’s his first attempt at WFA and the other is that The Star Kingdom hasn’t produced a placing in this race over the past three years. He’s a horse with a stack of ability and his last start win was against some adversity. He’s a horse on a big upward spiral and will be hard to run down.

6. Press Statement: Press Statement ran well in the George Ryder behind Winx and looks well suited back to 1400m. Although he was beaten by Kermadec in the George Ryder he likely to turn the tables with a favourable race shape here. A classy galloper who will be up and on the speed and has the acceleration to match it with any runner in the field over this journey. Hard to beat but if your keen to back him don’t rush in early.

7. English: She showed her elite acceleration coming from the back of the field in the TJ Smith and was only narrowly bettered by the more seasoned Chautauqua and Fell Swoop. She failed in her only attempt at 1400m however if you look at the negative tactics employed in The Galaxy (restrained to last) you could make the case that the stable have been teaching her to settle in preparation for longer races like the All Aged. If she can return a figure close to her run in the TJ Smith she’ll be hard to beat if they settle her closer in running.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) English – 3 units at $4.5 or more

 

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider