Randwick – December 12: The Betfair Insider

Posted: December 11, 2015

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Randwick, Saturday 12 December 2015

Track – Good 4

Rail out 3m

Weather forecast – www.bom.gov.au

Friday 11th – Max 31, partly cloudy

Saturday 12th – Max 25, possible late shower

 

R3 Inglis Nursery 2YO 1000m

Speed Map

Inglis Nursery

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners were on debut
  • 4 of past 5 winners were fillies
  • 1 of past 5 winners were SP favourites

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead Up Result

2014 Rail True, Soft 6

1st Odyssey Moon – SP $18 56kg BR 14 – Debut, 2 weeks, 1st barrier trial 900m Scone

2nd – Kimberley Star – SP $8 54kg BR9 – 2nd up, 4 weeks, 3rd 2YO maiden 900m Newcastle

3rd – Let’s Make It Rain – SP $3.30 56kg BR5 – 2nd up 2 weeks, 2nd 2YO set weights 1100m Rosehill

 

2013 Rail True, Good 3 (Run on Kensington track)

1st – Mossfun – SP $3.30 54kg BR3 – Debut, 2 weeks, 5th barrier trial 900m Rosehill

2nd – Dual Star – SP $15 54kg BR2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 7th 2YO set weights 1100m Rosehill

3rd – Baio – SP $4.20 56kg BR12 – 3rd up, 7 weeks, 8th Inglis 2Y0 1000m Moonee Valley

 

2012 Rail True, Good 3 (Run at Warwick Farm)

1st – Twilight Royale – SP $7.50 54.5kg BR6 – Debut, 1 week, 3rd barrier trial 805m Warwick Farm

2nd – Fuerza – SP $5.50 56.5kg BR5 – Debut, 2 weeks, 1st barrier trial 805m Warwick Farm

3rd – Sweet Kiss – SP $2.90 54.5kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 5 weeks, 1st 2YO maiden 900m Newcastle

 

2011 Rail True, Good 3 (Run at Warwick Farm)

1st – Diamond Earth – SP $9 54.5kg BR9 – 3rd up, 8 weeks, Inglis 2YO 1000m Moonee Valley

2nd – De Shamekh – SP $8.50 56.5kg BR2 – Debut, 2 weeks, 1st barrier trial 800m Warwick Farm

3rd – Flying Snitzel – SP $2.20 54.kg BR7 – 2nd up, 1 week, 1st 2YO maiden 1200m Canterbury

 

2010 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Pane In The Glass – SP $5.50 54kg BR11 – 2nd up, 5 weeks, 1st 2YO fillies open 1000m Eagle Farm

2nd – Jackpot Queen – SP $26 54kg BR7 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 2nd 2YO open 1000m Canberra

3rd – Pure Force – SP $14 56kg BR4 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 6th 2YO handicap 1100m Rosehill

 

Major Players

  1. JacksonNicely treated at the weights in this race considering he’s already won a stakes event and not penalised. Settled off the speed and closed off strongly to narrowly win the Listed Merson Cooper Stakes. Should be afforded a similar run from mid draw, so expect to see him winding up late. Definite leading chance.
  2. Rafha’s Choice Held on gamely to record second win from as many starts in a small field at Rosehill last start. The drop back to 1000m looks to be of benefit but barrier 18 makes life difficult. One can imagine this event will be much stronger than what he has faced previously therefore happy to risk based on the early market price of $5.50-6.00.
  3. Rampage Showed great tenacity to win on debut at Moonee Valley and appears open to improvement. Wide draw makes things awkward coming to Sydney for the first time.
  4. Credible Witness Run was extremely encouraging at Moonee Valley in the Inglis Bonus race on Cox Plate day. The pattern clearly favoured horses on speed and close to the fence that day and he was posted three wide for the journey and still managed to make ground late. Since returned to Sydney and produced two very sharp barrier trials and have marked him favourite for the race.
  5. Extreme Choice Melbourne visitor who looked nice winning a Rosehill barrier trial on Tuesday morning. He appeared very professional, bouncing straight to the front and cruising to the line under a nice grip in a time that was just shy of Golden Slipper favourite Capitalist.
  6. Jeanneau Really like the way she found the line to run second behind Calliope in the Listed Gimcrack Stakes at this track and distance on October 3rd. She appeared a touch green, which is understandable for an early running two-year-old.
  7. Vegas Strip Attracted strong support on debut at Moonee Valley when finishing fourth behind Rampage. She settled back in the field and worked to the line nicely in a performance that would suggest she would be suited to the open spaces and long straight at Randwick.
  8. Midnight Rose The stable produced Mossfun to win this race in 2013 and this filly has trialled good enough to suggest she will be a major player. She possesses natural speed and appeared strong when challenged at the end of her trial win at Warwick Farm.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair  LAY – E/W – Rafha’s ChoiceHappy to lay him up to $10.

Back on Betfair  BACK – WIN – Credible WitnessI’ve rated him $5 favourite.

 

R7 Villiers Stakes G2 1600m

Speed Map

Villiers Stakes

 

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners had previous run in Festival Stakes
  • 1 of past 5 winners carried > 54.5kg to victory
  • 1 of past 5 winners was a mare
  • 4 of past 5 winners had a fortnight since their last run

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead Up Result

2014 Rail True, Soft 5

1st – Rudy – SP $5.50 53kg BR 6 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 1st Recognition Stakes Listed 1600m Doomben

2nd – I’m Imposing – SP $14 56.5kg BR 12 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 1st Festival Stakes Listed 1500m Rosehill

3rd – Strawberry Boy – SP $8 57kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 3rd Festival Stakes Listed 1500m Rosehill

 

2013 Rail True, Good 3 (Run on Kensington track)

1st – Ninth Legion – SP $11 54.5kg BR11 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 11th Festival Stakes Listed 1500m Rosehill

2nd – Limes – SP $12 53kg BR 10 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 6th Festival Stakes Listed 1500m Rosehill

3rd – Alma’s Fury – SP $15 58kg BR 4 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 3rd Festival Stakes Listed 1500m Rosehill

 

2012 Rail True, Good 3 (Run at Warwick Farm)

1st – All Legal – SP $20 54kg BR 9 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 7th Listed Festival Stakes 1500m Rosehill

2nd – Alma’s Fury – SP $14 53kg BR15 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 6th Listed Festival Stakes 1500m Rosehill

3rd – Darci Be Good – SP $41 54.5kg BR16 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 10th Listed Festival Stakes 1500m Rosehill

 

2011 Rail True, Good 3 (Run at Warwick Farm)

1st – Monton – SP $12 58kg BR15 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 1st Listed Festival Stakes 1500m Rosehill

2nd – Kontiki Park – SP $14 52kg BR13 – 4th up, 1 week, 3rd Welter 1400m Rosehill

3rd – King Lionheart – SP $14 58kg BR2 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 7th Listed Festival Stakes 1500m Rosehill

 

2010 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Dances On Waves – SP $26 52kg BR16 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 1st BM85 1550m Kensington

2nd – Mentality – SP $12 55.5kg BR17 – 5th up, 1 week, 8th BM95 1400m Rosehill

3rd – Snow Alert – SP $7.50 58kg BR 12 – 8th up, 6 weeks, 7th Group 1 Emirates Stks 1600m Flemington

 

Major players

  1. It’s SomewhatProduced an encouraging run first-up in the Festival Stakes with 59kg, traditionally the best lead up event for this race. The overall time for the 1500m was a touch slower than Happy Clapper’s on the corresponding day at the same distance, suggesting those on speed were advantaged. Wide draw makes him vulnerable and the race profile is heavily against horses up in the weights.
  2. Malice Looked a touch one paced when fifth behind Casino Dancer last start. Has since been given a month to freshen and kept ticking over with a very soft barrier trial on November 30th. Should roll forward and find a comfortable position and drops to a competitive weight.
  3. Casino Dancer This mare has absolutely thrived since the blinkers were applied with two wins and two placings including a solid victory the Group 3 Eclipse Stakes 1800m at Sandown last start. She was beaten by Frespanol carrying significantly less weight three starts ago and that form reference suggests she might struggle here with 55kg.
  4. Telepathic Chris Waller loves running horses over 2000m before dropping back in distance to win a feature Randwick mile and this mare follows that exact formula. It has worked for him with Rangirangdoo (Doncaster), Sacred Falls (Doncaster) and He’s Your Man (Epsom) and it would take a brave person to say Telepathic can’t add to that list. She toyed with her rivals in the ATC Cup last start and gets a great opportunity to continue winning form with only 53kg.
  5. ZanbaghCaught the eye in the Festival Stakes, producing the best sectional splits for the final 400m home in 22.56 seconds. The increase in distance to 1600m and shifting to Randwick appear two big positives for this mare. Another positive in her favour is that she minimum drops to 53kg in this race, 1kg lower than her last start in the Festival Stakes. The wide barrier is not much of a concern as she will look to get back and find cover. She looks well over the odds in early betting markets.
  6. God’s In Him Disappointed when favourite last start but can certainly forgive given he carried 61kg and was having his first run off a 56 day break. His previous effort when second to Vashka in the Group 2 Shannon Stakes shows what he can do on the minimum weight of 53kg in this grade. Drawn to get the run of the race and will be hard to hold out.
  7. Happy ClapperHas recorded two impressive wins this preparation and now looks primed to show his best third-up on his home track over 1600m. He did a great job with 60.5kg last start and is now suitably weighted on the minimum with 53kg. He finished his last start with 200m sectionals of 11.30 secs, 11.34 secs and 12.74 secs, indicating he tired in the final furlong and is open to improvement this weekend. Well found in the market but looks to get plenty of the favours from the draw.

 

Betting Strategy

BACK- E/W – 14. ZanbaghI’ve rated her a $9 chance. $17 in early markets won’t last.

BACK – WIN – 15. God’s In Him – I’ve rated him $5.50 favourite.

 

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying,

The Betfair Insider

 

NB: Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au