HORSE RACING TIPS
YORK EBOR FESTIVAL – DAY TWO
NB: All times listed AEST
It’s been all one-way traffic for Lumiere in the Lowther at 23:30 and the 9/4 that was available in a place on Sunday is a very distant memory.
If you want to get with the impressive Newmarket maiden winner you will now have to do so at around point shorter at 2.76, and that makes her unbackable to these eyes.
But in many ways she is the ultimate Betfair “two-way trade” horse, with many thinking that she looked a superstar first time up and going in all guns blazing, with others happy to lay her on price grounds alone.
Yes, she came up to expectations – and then some – when winning by six lengths when all the rage on her debut. And the time figure she recorded when making all there prompted many to upgrade the form even further. And, in the absence of any other confirmed pace-setters in the line-up, she could well get the run of the race from the front once again.
But this is a considerable step up in class, and the fact is that the Newmarket form isn’t working out that well, with defeats for all those to have come out of the race, and they include the third to the seventh home. Well, defeats for all before the runner-up won at odds of 1-4 at Ffos Las earlier today, anyway.
She has two-and-a-quarter lengths to find with Easton Angel on their Queen Mary running behind Nunthorpe favourite Acapulco but the step up to this trip saw her reverse that form in no uncertain terms in the Cherry Hinton.
She suffered an agonising nose defeat at the hands of the unbeaten Albany winner Illuminate at Newmarket – with subsequent Sweet Solera winner Blue Bayou a short head away in third – but at least it works in her favour here as she avoids a 3lb penalty for a Group 2 win.
And she proved she was versatile and as effective in the soft with an impressive three-length win in the Princess Margaret at Ascot last time.
Lumiere will have to be as good as she looked to beat the likes of Besharah and Easton Angel, not to mention the likes of Ashadian and promising maiden winners Quiet Reflection, Continental Lady and Lady Clair.
William Haggas may have already had a valuable juvenile win on the York card courtesy of Richmond Stakes runner-up Tasleet in the 300k sales race at 22:55.
Initially, this wasn’t a race I got particularly excited about.Projection clocked a good speed figure when winning on fast ground at Windsor, and Orvar has solid-enough form claims, but the one that I really came round to was Lathom, who rates a win and place bet at around 12 and around 3.65 respectively.
Along with Tasleet, he has a 5lb penalty for his Weatherbys Super Sprint win at Newbury but he probably improved again when fifth to Kachy in the Molecomb, where he would have finished a good third at worst had he not been hampered in the final furlong.
It’s not often that I say this but I think Covert Love is a reasonably-priced favourite at around the 4.00 mark in the Yorkshire Oaks at 00:40.
She doesn’t have much in hand of these on official figures but I thought that she was incredibly impressive in beating Jack Naylor and Curvy in the Irish Oaks, and I could see her developing into a live contender for the Arc.
Throw in the fact that she has course form too, and I was tempted to have one of my rare bets at the front end of the market – but not quite tempted enough.
Connections have been minding him ever since he apparently hated the fast ground at Ascot and he has missed a couple of engagements of late.
But on his only start since the Royal meeting he looked an unlucky loser, finishing third to Birdman and Musaddas over course and distance after being held out the back of a steadily-run race and meeting plenty of trouble as he made his move through the pack.
In fact, I reckon he should be two from two over track and trip – Graham Lee took too long to ask him for his effort here in May – and think he is still fairly handicapped despite having been raised 2lb for his recent effort.
Tuesday’s rain – and some showers may materialise on Wednesday night too – should ensure good ground for him, which connections now consider key.
My preference would be for Secret Hint, who has been running well – the horse that beat her last time won by six lengths off a 3lb higher mark on her next start – and should be suited by the step up to 7f on breeding. And she is officially 2lb well-in here.
Actually, I think she is a bet at a double-figure price, so is worth an interest at 15.00 or bigger.
Back Lathom at 12.00 win and 3.50 place in the 22:55 at York
Back Besharah at 1.73 to place in the 23:30 at York, or at 5.6 in the win market
Back You’re Fired at 13.00 in the 00:05 at York
Back Secret Hint at 15.5 in the 01:55 at York