York Ebor Day Three Tips: Take a Chancery on impressive recent winner

Posted: August 21, 2015

york day three

HORSE RACING TIPS

YORK EBOR FESTIVAL – DAY THREE

NB: All times listed AEST

Ebor, 00:40

There’s only one place to start when looking at Friday’s card at York, and that is Acapulco in the Nunthorpe at 00:40; whether you back or oppose her at around the 3.2 mark probably defines what kind of punter you are.

That may be a touch simplistic, I grant you, as there are clearly a lot of positives about her chances.

Everyone is now fully aware that she was a fully mature body-builder bullying a classroom of pre-pubescent schoolgirls – I called her more Arnie, than Annie, in an ante-post piece last week – when winning the Queen Mary from good fillies in a very fast time at Royal Ascot.

She will think that she is running loose with 8st here, and she could easily follow in the footsteps of Lyric Fantasy and Kingsgate Native, who won this race as 2yos.

But plenty of juveniles have tried and failed – perhaps not as good as this filly, admittedly and this race does lack a stand-out rival – and there is no doubt at all that taking on 19-hardened sprinters on a different track and ground will test the bully more fully.

And, for all the tales of her recent exceptional home work, we will only know how well she has taken her second trip from the States in two months when she gets out on the track.

I can see her struggling myself, and she makes no appeal to me at 2/1, and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that Muthmir, Sole Power and Mecca’s Angel are her biggest rivals.

But the ground could be not fast enough for the former, or soft enough for the latter, and I am going in two-handed with a pair of outsiders in Music Master and Wind Fire at 40.00 and 55.00.

Music Master is an old friend of mine, and it could be that he will find things happening all too quickly for him.

But this horse travels so well in his races that a fast-run 5f on decent ground could just see him make that leap forward to Group 1 class that he has always promised.

I backed him in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot and was getting pretty excited at one stage – he traded at 3.6 in running – before his run flattened out in the final furlong. Even so, his 3 1/2 length 4th there was still a very respectable effort, and hinted at better things to come.

I’ll be punting him at around the 40.00 mark on the exchange and putting in an in-running lay at around 3/1.

Wind Fire takes a bit more belief but she is another hold-up horse who could be suited by how the race is run. She would have won the Temple Stakes at Haydock in May, and Coral Charge at Sandown last month, with a clear run and you can see her rattling home fast and late again here. Her overall profile suggests that she falls short of this class but she is no 50/1 poke in my book. If Acapulco comes up short, then this Group 1 prize is up for grabs.

Ebor, 22:55

The opening 1m4f handicap at 22:55 looks a pretty hot heat.

Everyone saw how unlucky Top Tug was at Goodwood, Curbyourenthusiasm is a progressive sort, and there looks more to come from the likes of Memorial Day, Penhill and Libran. Even The Mighty Yar, who looks so slow on occasions, could be livened up by first-time blinkers.

But anyone who saw Chancery stroll home at Ripon earlier in the week will surely be tempted by odds of 8.60 or better.

You will rarely see an easier winner of a handicap – admittedly he loves Ripon, and has never run a bad race there – and he has to be a massive player under his 6lb penalty.

It is obviously a very quick turnaround (though he won twice in eight days in 2013) and a much deeper race, but that Ripon win came in a very good time considering the ease of success, and he has a big chance of following up his win in this race two years ago.

Ebor, 23:30

The Lonsdale Cup at 23:30 doesn’t make much betting appeal to me – slight preference would be for Clever Cookie – and you will rarely get a trappier race than the 15:05, 120124701.

Top of my list would be Heaven’s Guest, but there are any number of horses that you can make a decent case for, so I’ll happily pass.

In the concluding handicap on RUK at 01:55 it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world to see Talyani carry on his winning run, even off a 12lb higher mark. He bolted up at Newmarket last time despite hanging badly, and is already a course winner, to boot.

Recommended Bets

Back Chancery at 8.60 or better in the 22:55
Back Music Master at 40.00 in the 00:40
Back Wind Fire at 55.00 in the 00:40