The Betfair Insider: Randwick & Caulfield Saturday 19 September Review

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Review: Randwick, Saturday September 19

R6 George Main Stakes G1 WFA 1600m

Our suggested bet Kermadec was the profile standout and despite drawn barrier five, found himself wide in parts of the race. His class enough to overcome a difficult run in transit.

Despite being untried beyond a mile, Kermadec is now Cox Plate favourite at $8 on the Exchange. I couldn’t back him at that quote and think it will be difficult for Chris Waller to keep the horse at his top, to possibly peak again on October 24th.

Lucia Valentina (4th) produced one of her best 2nd up performances. Not sure if it was the slow surface or she’s come back better than ever? Her next start will tell the story and I’ll be keeping her very safe.

Royal Descent looks on target for a big performance in the Epsom, Pornichet was brave but I can’t have him in a Cox Plate. Why he doesn’t hold a Caulfield Cup nomination, I’ll never know. However he does hold one in the Melbourne Cup.

 

Betfair Data

Pre Play

Kermadec

Maximum Price: $3.55

Minimum Price: $2.52

Betfair SP: $2.53

% of volume traded on winner: 57%

The Others

SUPERTAB: $2.30

UNITAB: $2.3

NSW TAB: $2.30

Best Corporate SP: $2.50

 

In Play

Kermadec

Maximum Price: $4.60

 

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

2nd – Royal Descent – $4.90

3rd – Pornichet – $1.57

 

R7 Hill Stakes G2 WFA 2000m

Complacent worked early in the run from a wide gate, beaten just over a length. I can’t sack him off that performance, he’s a knockout chance in the Caulfield Cup where he will drop 6kgs. He’s finished top two in 5 of his 6 starts on a good track which is another important consideration going forward.

Preferment was rated to perfection by Hugh Bowman.  A surprise result for most punters with the Melbourne Cup thought to be his spring target. Winning 2nd up over 2000m at WFA must put him right into Caulfield Cup calculations and the market has reacted shortening from $33 into $14.50.

Runner-up Magic Hurricane is now The Metropolitan favourite at $7 on the Exchange. He drops from WFA 59kg to 52kg under handicap conditions. With others likely to head to Melbourne he looks the standout runner with the only possible query being if he can run out a strong 2400m at G1 level.

Who Shot Thebarman ran very well looking towards the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup.

 

Betfair Data

Pre Play

Preferment

Maximum Price: $42.00

Minimum Price: $19.25

Betfair SP: $30.00

% of volume traded on winner: 2.8%

The Others

SUPERTAB: $28.90

UNITAB: $31.30

NSW TAB: $34.50

Best Corporate SP: $31

 

In Play

Preferment

Maximum Price: $32.00

 

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

2nd – Magic Hurricane – $1.01 ($4,859 traded at $1.01)

3rd – Complacent – $4.60

 

Review: Caulfield, Saturday September 19

 

R7 How Now Stakes G3 Mares 4yo+ 1200m

A frustrating race to watch for followers with Wawail mapping to plan but failing to obtain clear running. I’m confident she’s the best mare in from that field, the Disappointing outcome from Saturday is it’s unlikely we will get the same price about her in similar company going forward.

Girl Guide, Hazard & Tycoon Tara all weakened badly over the final 200m causing major traffic problems. This suited the widest gallopers with Politeness and Griante finishing the strongest down the outside.

Our suggested lay bet Vezalay was heavily backed but raced like a tired horse. I’m now 100% convinced she’s most dangerous first up.

Satya hit the line strongly despite a huge step up in grade. She will improve up in distance and Flemington looks an ideal track for her.

 

Betfair Data

Pre Play

Politeness

Maximum Price: $12.00

Minimum Price: $8.00

Betfair SP: $8.80

% of volume traded on winner: 8.9%

The Others

SUPERTAB: $9.10

UNITAB: $9.00

NSW TAB: $9.00

Best Corporate SP: $8.50

 

In Play

Politeness

Maximum Price: $17.00

 

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

2nd – Griante – $1.90  

3rd – Jessy Belle – $11.50

 

Follow @Betfair_Aus to see more analysis this week when I preview:

Caulfield – Sir Rupert Clarke & Underwood Stakes