The Betfair Insider: Moonee Valley & Randwick Saturday 5 September Review

Posted: September 7, 2015 at 10:52 am

BettingBetter_W

 

REVIEW: Moonee Valley, Saturday 5 September 2015

 

R7 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes 1600m G2 WFA

The Cleaner reminded us how well his racing style is suited to The Valley now unbeaten on four occasions at the mile. The profile indicated Betfair SP favourite Contributer ($2.36) would be a risk given none of the past 5 winners had been 1st up.

The Cleaner is now ballot exempt for the Cox Plate, not convinced he can win the race but would be an amazing training performance from Mick Burles if he does. Contributer will improve on a bigger track and I’d be inclined to forgive the run.

Our BACK suggestion Dibayani (1 win x 3 place) had every opportunity to win the race and despite a small bumping duel with Contributer was too dour. He surged again late indicating he’ll be suited by more ground. He’s now passed the ballot for the Caulfield Cup with his 3rd placing, to carry 53kg in the race.

 

Betfair Data

Pre Play

The Cleaner

Maximum Price: $7.35

Minimum Price: $5.30

 Betfair SP: $6.29

% of volume traded on winner: 9.4%

The Others

SUPERTAB – $5.30

UNITAB – $4.70

NSW TAB – $5.20

Best Corporate SP: $6.00

 

In Play

The Cleaner

Maximum Price: $7.20

Minimum Price: $1.01

 

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

2nd Bagman $4.40

3rd Dibayani $5.00

 

R8 Mitty’s McEwen Stakes 1000m G2 WFA

All honours the winner Chautauqua. He looks set to dominate the G1 sprints of the Melbourne spring (Moir Stakes, Manikato & Darley Classic). Our BACK suggestion Flamberge never looked comfortable in running, changing stride on multiple occasions throughout the race. Furnaces ran up to his best but may not have much improvement to follow. Given time to mature I’d be thinking the Oakleigh Plate would be the ideal race for him in autumn.

 

Betfair Data

Pre Play

Chautauqua

Maximum Price: $3.45

Minimum Price: $2.44

 

Betfair SP: $2.72

% of volume traded on winner: 49.6%

 

The Others

SUPERTAB – $2.70

UNITAB – $2.60

NSW TAB – $2.60

Best Corporate SP: $2.70

 

In Play

Chautauqua

Maximum Price: $8.00

Minimum Price: $1.01

 

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

2nd Flamberge $4.00

3rd Furnaces $2.20

 

REVIEW: Randwick, Saturday 5 September 2015

 

R6 Chelmsford Stakes 1600m G2 WFA

Complacent dictated the race from the front with minimal pressure from rivals. Godolphin outsmarted their rivals understanding a lack of tempo early on in proceedings with the scratching of stablemate It’s Somewhat. Hartnell sat outside complacent up and on the speed.  Our BACK suggestion Kermadec, trapped 3 wide the entire race with Glen Boss opting to stay there rather than challenge for the lead. It was a boat race.

Despite that, I’m confident this will be the form race to follow from the weekend. Complacent will be targeted to the Caulfield Cup. Kermadec is the obvious horse to beat in the George Main & Epsom Handicap. Hartnell looks on target for the Cox Plate despite the suggestion to LAY him first up in our preview. The race profile indicated the winner would come from the Warwick Stakes as the lead up event, which was the case for the first three runners past the post.

 

Betfair Data

Pre Play

Complacent

Maximum Price: $180.00

Minimum Price: $41.40

 

Betfair SP: $110

% of volume traded on winner: 0.5%

 

The Others

SUPERTAB – $50.80

UNITAB – $65.20

NSW TAB – $47.00

Best Corporate SP: $101

 

In Play

Complacent

Maximum Price: $85.00

Minimum Price: $1.01

 

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

2nd Kermadec $3.05

3rd Royal Descent $3.90

 

 6th Pornichet $1.21

 

Follow @Betfair_Aus to see more analysis this week when I preview:

Flemington – Makybe Diva Stakes

Rosehill – Golden Rose

*All Betfair prices published include commission.