The Betfair Insider: Caulfield Saturday 26 September Review

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Review: Caulfield, Saturday September 26

R6 Caulfield Guineas Prelude  

Our suggested bet Dal Cielo was pressured early and stuck on strongly to run 3rd with the majority of others involved in the early speed battle weakening significantly. Mr Individual finished off better than most despite being favoured sitting on the leaders back.

Snoopy was held up briefly but given clear running still would not have been capable of winning the race. Our lay bet Bon Aurum went back from his wide gate. It proved a masterstroke by Kerrin McEvoy and he was fit and fresh enough to hold the fast finishing Tulsa who also impressed running on strongly against the bias.

Favourite Ready For Victory raced like a horse that needs blinkers. He didn’t go early, hit another flat spot at the turn and only got going late. He looks to be a fresh horse suited between 1100-1200m.

From the race I’d follow Dal Cielo & Tulsa with the most confidence. Press Statement deserves to be Caulfield Guineas favourite after his dominant win in the G2 Stan Fox over 1500m but these placegetters will improve sharply.

 

Betfair Data

Pre Play

BON AURUM

Maximum Price: $26.00

Minimum Price: $9.00

Betfair SP: $15.79

% of volume traded on winner: 5%

The Others

SUPERTAB: $10.30

UNITAB: $10.60

NSW TAB: $11.60

Best Corporate SP: $10

 

In Play

Bon Aurum

Maximum Price: $50.00

Minimum Price: $1.01

 

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

2nd – Tulsa: $1.84

3rd – Dal Cielo: $2.24

 

R7 Underwood Stakes G1 1800m

Mourinho produced a career peak to upset his rivals in the Underwood. He was one of the only horses not to drop the bit when The Cleaner poured the pressure into the race 600m from the winning post.  The tempo was closer to even and given the way the track played it was hard to make ground from anywhere more than 3 pairs back.

Our suggested bet Fawkner lacked the turn of foot to reel in the winner after getting a soft run in transit. He looked beaten 400m from home and rallied hard beaten 0.1 of a length. He like the placegetters will be competitive in most races they contest going forward, at this stage I’m still leaning towards Alpine Eagle or Kermadec for races like the Caulfield Stakes & Cox Plate.

Mongolian Khan impressed 2nd up, beaten under 2 lengths. He looks right on target for a big performance in the Caulfield Cup (now 3rd favourite on the Exchange). He doesn’t profile as the winner based on recent years but few horses with his class are targeted at the event ahead of the Cox Plate.

Volkstok’n’barrel is another at the crossroads. He mapped perfectly and look to have every chance in running. Connections may need to lower their sights opting for the Caulfield Cup over the Cox Plate. That said I’m not sure if he could turn the tables on Mongolian Khan despite meeting him 1.5kg better off at the weights.

Hi World looks a handicap miler and should be freshened for the Emirates Stakes.

 

Betfair Data

Pre Play

MOURINHO

Maximum Price: $36.00

Minimum Price: $18.00

Betfair SP: $22.77

% of volume traded on winner: 2.4%

The Others

SUPERTAB: $19.60

UNITAB: $19.50

NSW TAB: $19.70

Best Corporate SP: $18

 

In Play

Mourinho

Maximum Price: $32.00

Minimum Price: $1.37

 

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

2nd – Fawkner: $3.85

3rd – The Cleaner: $3.00

 

R8 Sir Rupert Clarke G1 Handicap 1400m

Our suggested bet Stratum Star, the profile standout being a 4yo and dropping back from a strong performance in the G1 Memsie Stakes. He mapped closer than anticipated but was allowed to relax between the 800-600m mark which allowed him to finish off his last 200m with authority.

Disposition was impressive and will improve into the Toorak Handicap. Lucky Hussler also hit the line well after laying in on top of Amorino. All three runners will prove hard to beat in any 1400m – 1600m handicap events over the coming months. Under The Louvre traded as low as $1.11 in play but 1400m found him out yet again.

Betfair Data

Pre Play

STRATUM STAR

Maximum Price: $10.50

Minimum Price: $8.00

Betfair SP: $10

% of volume traded on winner: 10.4%

The Others

SUPERTAB: $9.60

UNITAB: $9.80

NSW TAB: $9.50

Best Corporate SP: $10

 

In Play

Stratum Star

Maximum Price: 10.00

Minimum Price: $2.00

 

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

2nd – Disposition: $2.10

3rd – Under The Louvre $1.11

 

Follow @Betfair_Aus to see more analysis this week when I preview:

 

Moonee Valley – Bill Stutt Stakes & Moir Stakes

Randwick – Epsom Handicap & The Metropolitan

Flemington – Turnbull Stakes