THE BETFAIR INSIDER: CAULFIELD & ROSEHILL SATURDAY 29 AUGUST REVIEW

 

BettingBetter_W

 

THE INSIDER REVIEW

REVIEW: Caulfield, Saturday 29 August 2015

R4 H.D.F McNeil Stakes 1200m G3 3yo SWP

It wasn’t the best spectacle but the race panned out perfectly for our value bet of the race with Gold Symphony saluting at a BSP of $8.92 for the Insider followers.

Profile said:

  • The Vain Stakes as a lead up event has now produced 3 of the past 6 winners.
  • 4 of the past 6 winners have been 2nd up (2 weeks) so race fitness is a clear advantage.

Prince Of Brooklyn settled wide throughout as did Mr Individual, both can be followed with confidence going forward in weaker company. Ready For Victory returned in great order, with even luck he probably wins the race. He improved sharply last preparation when 2nd up running Vancouver to 1.8 lengths in the Golden Slipper, so Mick Price will now target the colt at the Golden Rose in a fortnight’s time.

 

Betfair Data

 Pre Play

 Gold Symphony

Maximum Price: $12.00

Minimum Price: $8.20

 Betfair SP: $8.92

% of volume traded on winner: 6.3%

 The Others

SUPERTAB – $8.3

UNITAB – $7.8

NSW TAB – $7.8

Best Corporate SP: $9.5

 In Play

Gold Symphony

Maximum Price: $270.00

Minimum Price: $1.01

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

 2nd Ready For Victory $2.12

3rd Demonstrate $1.04

 

R8 NZ Bloodstock Memsie Stakes G1 1400m WFA

Chris Waller continues to dominate G1 racing in Australia, his ability to target, plan and peak his horses for ‘Grand Final Day’ is like no other modern day trainer. We identified Boban as the ‘profile standout’ for the following reasons:

  • 5 of the past 5 winner’s had been 1st Now it stands as 6 of 6
  • 4 of the past 5 winner’s raced in strong G1 events at their previous start, now 5 of 6.
  • 1400m specialists suited or STAR WFA Champions (Boban 5 x G1 winner)

Entirely Platinum was gallant in defeat as were Stratum Star & Hi World who all will be very hard to beat under handicap conditions between 1400m-1800m over the coming months.

Volkstok’n’barrel was heavily supported pre-play despite trainer Donna Logan suggesting in the media the galloper would be a run short of his best. A few lazy bookmakers are still betting $26 for him to win the Cox Plate, barring injury I’m confident he will start the race close to SP favourite.

Our two Place Lay suggestions were unplaced:

  • Weary 4th (Strong performance, beaten by tempo and barrier)
  • Rising Romance 6th (Great 1st up run but unlikely to peak until 1800m+)
  • Charmed Harmony (SCR)

Betfair Data

 Pre Play

 Boban

Maximum Price: $7.22

Minimum Price: $4.40

 Betfair SP: $6.01

% of volume traded on winner: 16.3%

 The Others

SUPERTAB – $5.3

UNITAB – $5.4

NSW TAB – $5.1

Best Corporate SP: $6.0

 In Play

Boban

Maximum Price: $12.00

Minimum Price: $1.01

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

 2nd Entirely Platinum $1.26

3rd Stratum Star $1.17

 

REVIEW: Rosehill, Saturday 29 August 2015

R5 MTA NSW Run To The Rose 1200m G2 3yo SWP

Staggering fluctuations pre-play on this race, the weight of money for Japonisme even harder to fathom. Our Profile suggested the race would be fought out between Japonisme, Press Statement & Exosphere for the following reasons:

  • 4 of past 5 winners undefeated colts
  • 5 of past 5 winners all last start winners ranging 1100m-1600m
  • 3 of past 5 winners SP Favs

Our suggested bet Press Statement ran 2nd  and despite giving the winner Exosphere a 1kg advantage at the weights, it looks unlikely that he can reverse the result in the Golden Rose. Press Statement may want further with the Caulfield Guineas 1600m a suitable option.

Exosphere will be hard to beat in the Golden Rose and is likely to then be freshened up for the Coolmore Stud Stakes in late October.

Exosphere came from behind Press Statement in running and looked to have more improvement from the mounting yard. How much of an effect on the market does the way a horse parades pre-race? In this instance, I’d say considerably. In the final 15 minutes of betting Exosphere drifted from $4.22 to a closing BSP $7.40 burning Betfair Lay punters badly.

On the flip side it was a fill up for Betfair favourite Lay punters. Japonisme traded at Max price of $2.79 with a BSP of $2.11 accounting for 63% of volume traded pre play. Press Statement’s Max price $8.60 with a BSP of $5.21 making this five horse field a trader’s dream pre-play.

Betfair Data

 Pre Play

 Exosphere

Maximum Price: $10.00

Minimum Price: $3.60

 Betfair SP: $7.4

% of volume traded on winner: 14%

 The Others

SUPERTAB – $4.6

UNITAB – $4.6

NSW TAB – $4.4

Best Corporate SP: $7.0

 In Play

Exosphere

Maximum Price: $8.40

Minimum Price: $1.01

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

 2nd Press Statement $1.22

3rd Holler $10.00

 

Follow @Betfair_Aus to see more analysis this week when I preview:

Moonee Valley – Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes & McEwen Stakes

Randwick – Chelmsford Stakes

*All Betfair prices published include commission.