Ratings2Win Midweek Metro Preview: Eagle Farm Race 4, Wednesday 9th November 2016

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Midweek Metro Preview

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R4 Eagle Farm 1000m CL3 SW $20,000


Good 4, Rail is at 11m.


The R2W Early Speed Map predicts an Above Average tempo.

Race Overview

The early morning fixed odds markets have three runners at single figure odds whereas the R2W computer has two. This race appeals as a good opportunity to work around Gracida whom we want to oppose (see Pro Lays sheet) and support one of our top two rated selections but beware there is a caveat.

Advantaged Horses

6. Tumbler: Resumes here without a trial off a 218-day spell. Is trained by the astute Barry Lockwood who has a good record with horses resuming. This lightly raced 5yo mare went out well and has only had four starts to date having won three of them recording good figures each time. The key to her today is that she needs a run-on track pattern to show her best and with Eagle Farm of late it’s anyone’s guess as to how the track will play although the common thread in the patterns so far seem to be that it suits horses that are building momentum coming to the home turn. Looks hard to beat if conditions suit.

8. Magic Diamond: X-Snowden galloper resuming here off a 203-day spell for the Matt Dunn stable. Had an easy trial and was hard held winning in fair time. If the track today suits leaders, then it’s the one that I would want to be with.

Neutral Horses


Disadvantaged Horses

1. Gracida: As per the Pro Lays sheet this week he is second up off a 164-day spell and is 32 days between runs facing the testing Eagle Farm track for the first time. The market seems to have placed too much emphasis on the wide trip last start and the fact that it is back from a Saturday race to a midweek race albeit in the same grade. The switch from Robbie Fradd to Alannah Fancourt cannot be a positive and we believe that the $4.80 in current fixed odds markets make him the one to oppose.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one of two (2) potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Tumbler at $2.80+ (1. units)  – see comment for conditions of bet


Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Magic Diamond at $2.80+ (1.8 units) – see comment for conditions of bet

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