Ratings2Win Midweek Metro Preview: Eagle Farm Race 4, Wednesday 9th November 2016

Posted: November 9, 2016

Ratings2Win Betfair

Midweek Metro Preview

Axis is Australia’s leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings. www.ratings2win.com.au

R4 Eagle Farm 1000m CL3 SW $20,000

Track

Good 4, Rail is at 11m.

Tempo 

The R2W Early Speed Map predicts an Above Average tempo.

Race Overview

The early morning fixed odds markets have three runners at single figure odds whereas the R2W computer has two. This race appeals as a good opportunity to work around Gracida whom we want to oppose (see Pro Lays sheet) and support one of our top two rated selections but beware there is a caveat.

Advantaged Horses

6. Tumbler: Resumes here without a trial off a 218-day spell. Is trained by the astute Barry Lockwood who has a good record with horses resuming. This lightly raced 5yo mare went out well and has only had four starts to date having won three of them recording good figures each time. The key to her today is that she needs a run-on track pattern to show her best and with Eagle Farm of late it’s anyone’s guess as to how the track will play although the common thread in the patterns so far seem to be that it suits horses that are building momentum coming to the home turn. Looks hard to beat if conditions suit.

8. Magic Diamond: X-Snowden galloper resuming here off a 203-day spell for the Matt Dunn stable. Had an easy trial and was hard held winning in fair time. If the track today suits leaders, then it’s the one that I would want to be with.

Neutral Horses

NIL

Disadvantaged Horses

1. Gracida: As per the Pro Lays sheet this week he is second up off a 164-day spell and is 32 days between runs facing the testing Eagle Farm track for the first time. The market seems to have placed too much emphasis on the wide trip last start and the fact that it is back from a Saturday race to a midweek race albeit in the same grade. The switch from Robbie Fradd to Alannah Fancourt cannot be a positive and we believe that the $4.80 in current fixed odds markets make him the one to oppose.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one of two (2) potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Tumbler at $2.80+ (1. units)  – see comment for conditions of bet

OR

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Magic Diamond at $2.80+ (1.8 units) – see comment for conditions of bet

©ratings2win Pty Ltd 2016. Printed under licence to Betfair Pty Ltd. This document is for personal use only and must not be reproduced. This information is supplied “as is” and is to be used for general guidance only. Use of this information is entirely at your own risk. Neither Betfair nor ratings2win make any representations or warranties of any kind, including but not limited to, the accuracy, quality or completeness of the information contained herein. The Early Speed Map graphical format is provided to Betfair by Racing and Sports Pty Ltd. All intellectual property of the Early Speed Maps is owned by ratings2win Pty Ltd. Please gamble responsibly. For more information, visit Betfair’s Responsibility Gambling Policy.

Related Articles