Terang R6 | The Terang Cup | 2150m Open LR Hcp | 3:50pm EST
The track is currently a Good 3 with the rail out 1m from the 400m to winning post and true for the remainder.
There is a 65% chance of 5mm-10mm rain on Saturday and a further 1-5mm showers on Sunday prior to the race.
The track condition will naturally depend on whether that rain hits the track and how much? If they can get away with around 5mm then the track can stay in the Good 4 range, otherwise it may tip over to a Soft 5.
History suggests on pace / handy runners are advantaged, even if the track moves into the Soft 5 range. Ground from the fence to four horses off in the straight should be perfectly fine.
Speed and Tactics
Survived (2) and Straight Jacket (5) look likely to press forward and share the lead. Shakopee (3) and Romanesque (4) will naturally hold handy positions.
Super Mover (8) and Chequered Flag (9) risk being caught wide unless they press forward, so I would expect at least one to do that, which should help to generate a little more pressure in the early stages.
That combined with the natural tendency of Survived and Straight Jacket to run along at a genuine speed should see this race run at a good early pace, giving all horses a chance.
Early Pace Rating: Genuine to above average
Late Pace Rating: Moderate to below average
Best Suited: 1.5 to 5 lengths off lead
WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark
Based on lead up form, the winner of this race is likely to need a rating of at least 92 (at the weights) to be competitive in the finish with the winner perhaps hitting the 94-95 level.
Yogi and Romanesque are the two I’m interested in backing depending on market prices close to the race. Romanesque still needs one more scratching to gain a run. If he doesn’t then Yogi’s assessed price would come into $2.15.
In our assessed price order. Note that Chequered Flag is not included in this market as it has run in Adelaide and Saturday (won.)
|7 Yogi||94.5-96.5||$2.50||His first up run over 1800m at Caulfield was very good. The pace was below average to the 800m but from then the pressure increased and he had to chase from a long way back, make a strong sustained run with clearly the best sectionals in the field. He will take good fitness benefit from that run, be suited by the step up in distance and while his get back style on this track is a risk, he does look to get an ideal good pace up front. His 94.8 rating last start is the best in this field and he’s been to 95.9 over 2100m before and up to 98 over further. He looks very likely to improve on last start and that’s going to make him very hard to beat.|
|14 Romanesque||92-95||$6.00||He’s 2nd emergency here and if he can secure a run, he’s in this with a decent chance. His 92 rating over 1600m last start is in the competitive zone and he had some nice quality in his speed / sectional benchmarks. That was actually a slight new career peak, which is a great sign given it came at 1600m and his best last prep came over 2200m. That along with the fact that he’s the most lightly raced galloper in the field and an import in his 2nd Australian prep suggests he has good scope to improve towards ratings in the 94-95 range, which can put him right in the finish and even win this race. With a cheap run just behind the speed, he’s looks able to run a great race.|
|12 Straight Jacket||90-93||$14.00||Solid first up in a fast 1600m race at Warracknabeal last start and will be better suited by the step up in distance. He’s got plenty of ratings that can be competitive but is likely to need a new peak to win.|
|8 Shakopee||89-92||$16.00||He was just fair last start over 1600m but his 89 rating is a decent platform to improve from stepping up to a much more suitable distance, which could see him reach some prior ratings that are competitive.|
|4 Swacadelic||90-93||$18.00||He was sound first up over 2000m at Stawell with a 90.3 rating and has obviously potential to improve towards some better ratings that can be very competitive. However, he’s likely to settle well back here and if the pace / track allows back markers to run on, I can’t see him outsprinting a horse like Yogi.|
|6 Survived||86-93||$21.00||Was poor in the Albury Cup LS but prior ran a 91 rating which can put him thereabouts and prior to that this prep he ran 93 and 94.5 which can be very competitive. He has to be a longshot, but it wouldn’t be a big surprise if he ran a good race.|
|2 Falago||89-91||$26.00||Hasn’t done anything in two runs so far this prep and while his best is up to winning this, he looks to need more racing.|
|5 Cougar Express||88-91||$26.00||Was a good winner at Oakbank but only carried 51kg there and goes up to 57kg here. His best can be thereabouts, but he needs a clear new peak to win.|
|9 Ancient King||87-92||$31.00||Recent runs and ratings are just fair. He needs to make big improvement|
|11 Gold Medals||87-92||$31.00||He was sound over 2000m from well back last start and does have a couple of spike performances on soft that are competitive here. If the rain comes he can run a decent race, but I’d be surprised if he won.|
|16 Super Mover||89-90||$41.00||Recent ratings are okay, but still a few lengths short of this. If we somehow got a Heavy track then he has some spike ratings that can measure up, but that looks very unlikely|
|15 Unrealistic||86-89||$101.00||Looks outclassed at this level.|
|1 Benzini||85-88||$126.00||Dropping back sharply from the 3200m Adelaide Cup and form a wide draw is likely to be a long way back.|
|3 Ivan Grozny||86-88||$126.00||He’s a hurdler import who was just fair at his first Australian run over 2000m. He looks to need much further and some fences.|
|13 Illavaalf||80-88||$401.00||He’s a jumped that failed at Oakbank over 4950m last start. Impossible to have back to 2150 on the flat.|