Ipswich has been a happy hunting ground for me for this day over the past few years. The race profiles run very straight and the wet surface is likely to further suit the on pace runners.
Ipswich Race 7 | Ipswich Cup | 1350m | 3:17pm
A pretty weak renewal and keen to side with Sort After despite being four weeks between runs. She flew through her grades last preparation to cap off the spring with a second placing behind Jessy Belle over 2000m at Flemington. The strength of that performance suggests that 2150m around Ipswich will be OK for her in this grade. There looks to be moderate pace with Court’s Star the likely leader. She can sit outside her and be strongest late.
Benzini appears to map last. Kelly Myers would be better placed to roll forward and look for cover midfield two wide in the running line. In that scenario I could entertain Benzini winning despite his impost of 60kg.
Tessastock could be the hidden value in the race. She wasn’t far away in a listed race in April over 1550m on wet ground. It’s obviously a big step up in class but, from Barrier 3, don’t be surprised if they go forward. She’s $12 in early betting so keen to see if there’s any money for her late on the Exchange.
BACK (WIN) Sort After
Ipswich Race 8 | Eye Liner | 1350m | 3:57pm
The class horse usually prevails in this event so there’s no disadvantage for runners high in the weights. The Virginian looks well placed here and can win with 57kg. His first two runs this preparation suggest he’s in career best form, missing the Stradbroke Hcp as an emergency last week means he’s still only two weeks between runs from his fourth place in the Moreton Cup. Barrier 2 means he can settle closer and as wet ground is his preferred going, I’m confident he’ll start favourite despite the stable yet to nominate a rider.
Vince Accardi’s RSPs have The Virginian rated equal second pick on overall speed ratings. A key factor I look at is superior mid and closing speed which he rates her strongly in. Monsieur Gustave has strong figures and could be a knockout runner.
Acatour is the early market favourite and this looks an odd placement from team Snowden. I’m wary from Barrier 11 and connections will ride him negatively, which looks a tough ask for him over this distance. The Sunshine Coast Guineas looks a much better race for him back up to the mile on a big roomy track.
Shiraz maps well from a nice barrier and did enough to be competitive here. Cantbuybetter is also drawn well, Ben Currie is a very solid trainer and this galloper excels on Heavy ground.
BACK (WIN) The Virginian
Ipswich Race 9 | Gai Waterhouse Classic | 1350m | 4:33pm
Kinshachi finished off strongly less than three lengths behind Bonny O’Reilly a fortnight ago in the listed 1200m Fillies & Mares race at Doomben. She can box seat behind the leaders here and can produce a big sprint when she sees daylight. Rain affected ground is a positive for her, winning three of six starts on Slow or Heavy rated tracks.
Stablemate Maternal meets her 4kg better from a fortnight ago, but has drawn Barrier 18 which might see her trapped three wide again.
Paul Daily rates I Am Zelady a $4.00 favourite. He says “Another runner coming off a last start failure at Eagle Farm. Is likely to race close to the pace here which could easily be an advantage by this time of the day”. I can see how he’s found the Joe Pride trained mare but if the track stays worse than a Soft 7, I personally think she’s under the odds.