Looking at Caulfield which should remain a Good 4 which is remarkable for this time of year. The rail is out 10m which should play to leaders ever so slightly. At the Sunshine Coast the track looks set to remain in the slow range with the rail back to true it should play even with only 1-6mm forecast for Saturday but unlikely to fall until the evening.
Sunshine Coast Race 3 | BM90 | 1400m | 1:22pm
Vince Accardi’s RSP indicate that Spur Le Jouer will be hard to beat in Race 3. He’ll settle back in the field from Barrier 12 in his usual racing pattern. His mid and late closing speed is high and he ranks on top of the speed ratings at +0.14. A last start winner he’s up in grade but drops 1.5kg on his home track where his record is very strong with six wins and two placings from 10 starts at this track and distance. Jim Byrne replacing Damien Browne (can’t ride 54.5kg) is not that big a negative either.
BACK (WIN) Spur Le Jouer
Caulfield Race 7 | Sir John Monash Stakes | 1200m | 3:30pm
I’m going to take on Punting Form here, and side with former WA runner Chocolate Holic in his first start for new trainer Darren Weir.
Despite the fact he may be looking for further, I’m confident he can show up fresh here and bring his solid WA form, where he ran second behind Vega Magic in the G3 A.J. Scahill Stakes at a new career peak. He only needs to improve a few lengths looking at Punting Form’s figures. And as we know, Weir unlocks talent as good as any trainer in the country.
If he maps midfield he’ll be hard to beat and strong closer’s like O’Malley and Supido may not be able to run him down looking at the RSPs.
Punting Form’s Feature Race Report suggests Supido is the runner to beat, who has form behind Black Heart Bart and English, and a “repeat of either of those performances should seem him salute here”. While I’m not keen to lay him one out, I am confident he’ll ease slightly in betting.
BACK (WIN) Chocolate Holic
Sunshine Coast Race 7 | Queensland Cup | 3200m | 4:02pm
I find it Hard to look past My Diamantine in this event. Despite never winning at 3200m she was only beaten 2.8 lengths in this race last year on an unsuitable heavy rated surface. Jeff Lloyd didn’t have his best day in the saddle on Sunshine Coast Guineas day but champions bounce back hard.
My Diamantine was taking ground off Supply And Demand in the Caloundra Cup and since then that galloper won the Grafton Cup leading throughout. I’m saying with confidence that the mare is going three lengths better than this time last year which I feel is enough to take out a pretty average renewal of the race.
My thoughts align with The Analysts’ Ratings, who rate My Diamantine a $4.28 favourite who looks ready for the 3200m after hitting the line well last start.
BACK (WIN) My Diamantine