Flemington has nice deep fields and is set for a Good 4. Don’t think wind will be much of a factor and most horses should get their chance to win despite the rail out 10m.
Flemington R2 | Open Handicap | 2350m | 12:50pm
Jonathan Walsh from the Bookies Bag is against Kilimanjaro from the Robert Hickmott (Williams) yard. Whilst I concede he’s building solidly in fitness he meets, Master Zephyr 2kgs worse from the last time they met. I’m happy to oppose the horse at $3.00 in early betting and be with Super Haze and Master Zephyr in a race that lacks much speed which could play heavily against Kilimanjaro.
LAY (WIN) Kilimanjaro
Flemington Race 7 | Aurie’s Star G3 | 1200m | 3:55pm
Punting Form’s Feature Report highlight the recent pattern of winners have been down in the weights, with the exception of Tiger Tees in 2014. Nine of the past 12 placegetters have carried 55kg or less which helps support that argument.
Looking at past editions I’d comfortably say that top weights Hey Doc & I Am A Star make this the strongest renewal in a while and couldn’t discount them from causing a boil over as both fly fresh and love Flemington.
Reegan Bayliss partners Grande Rosso who was sharp in a jump out down the straight a few weeks ago. Wearing all white the jump out can be viewed here.
Punting Form rate Cannyscent and Snitzson as the value betting options. Cannyscent has fitness on his side but I’d prefer him at 1400m. Snitzson was brilliant in the Australian Guineas, if anywhere near his top for this the weight swing on Hey Doc is enough to see him win this. $16 looks over the odds in early betting.
I Am A Star looks poorly weighted to Snitzson and whilst Flippant is rock hard fit and good down the straight, she looks under the odds at $5 or less in early markets and should drift.
Vince Accardi’s RSPs rate the race evenly which confirms my opinion to play wide and small. Tactics and tempo look to be everything here.
BACK (E/W) Snitzson