We end the Sydney Carnival fittingly with a 3200m slog on a bottomless Randwick. Happiness. Attention turns to the Adelaide and Brisbane carnivals and I’m in ‘lay mode’ with three of my five suggested bets taking on the favourites in the biggest races across the three states!
Doomben Race 3 | Princess Stakes | 1600m | 1:17pm
Ratings2Win return to preview our listed events for the Brisbane winter carnival and they kick off Saturday with a look at race for 3yo fillies over the mile. They predict that Damien Browne on Candika can map positively from barrier one to take up a forward position which I agree with. 1600m looks ideal and her ratings make her a clear favourite. Read their full preview here.
BACK (WIN) Candika
Doomben Race 6 | Mick Dittman Plate | 1050m | 3:07pm
Another preview from Ratings2win’s full prices available here. Plenty of speed engaged which should allow the closers to finish off. Sydney visitor Guard Of Honour drops back from the Oakleigh Plate off a trial win (Chestnut, Grey Silks) at Newcastle. That was enough to suggest he’ll be in the thick of things here. Barrier 11 is slightly awkward and the other horse with genuine class is River Racer who has form around Winning Rupert, she’s also drawn barrier 10, but flies fresh. All Over Bosanova is undefeated in four starts and maps perfectly I’m still not convinced she has the class to measure up so am inclined to lay her out to $5.00.
LAY – All Over Bosanova
Morphettville Race 6 | R N Irwin Stakes | 1100m | 3:33pm
Competitive sprint here with the Punting Form race profile against horse’s first-up. The other important factor to note is the rail +10m, the past four editions have been +6 (2015, 2016) and True (2014, 2013). One thing I will say is that it appears to be the strongest renewal since Driefontein won in 2014.
Punting Form side with Viddora who I agree looks ready to explode from an inside draw and placed second up. I love backing Lloyd Kennewal horses that are targeted to events, as a trainer his patterns are obvious.
Petits Filous boasts a career PB over 1100m (At Caulfield), her effort fresh at Moonee Valley over 955m was the perfect platform for a peak run here. Once upon a time she started $2.70 favourite against Buffering in a G1 Moir Stakes. She looks to still be a few lengths away from her best but that might be enough to win this controlling the race from the front.
Illustrious Lad seems a mystery. Brilliant fresh in the Lightning but since then OK in a forgivable Newmarket then a forgive in the William Reid when sustaining lacerations. My concern is his position on the map and off a wide draw he’s likely to go back to last. With rail out 10m he’s a lay at $3-3.50 early.
Darren Weir trained horses grow a leg and the erratic Sooboog is another capable of an upset or at worst beating home the Gellagotis trained Gelding.
Randwick Race 8 | Sydney Cup | 3200m | 3:35pm
Interesting race to assess with part of the field running in the abandonment with some well fancied runners pulled up. Who will be advantaged? I’m going to say the Imports Penglai Pavilion and Polarisation are likely to benefit for their first run here. Think ‘Geelong Cup Style‘ warm up for the Melbourne Cup in spring. The Appleby trained horses have potential to do the same here if the heavy surface hasn’t knocked them around.
Big Duke looks short enough at $3.50 in early betting. In recent time no winner has won deeper than five starts into their preparation and that can be seen on Punting Form’s feature Race report. He’s having his 9.5 start this preparation and despite looking well suited to 3200m I’m going to say others will run it faster than him and I’m still of the theory that he was flattered in his Chairman’s Hcp victory.
Libran has good figures looking at Punting Form’s race report and gets a more suitable slow surface despite the track resembling a cow paddock. Lasqueti Sprit is another I can’t have out to 2400m, she was mowed down in the AJC Oaks and that form doesn’t look strong enough against these older tougher stayers.
Dave Dwyer form the Bookies Bag is reading the same form guide and believes he was travelling poorly before they abandoned the Sydney Cup a fortnight ago.
Morphettville Race 7 | Schweppes Stakes (Auraria Stakes) | 1800m | 4:13pm
Hard to believe that last year’s winner was Silent Edition. Tricky renewal this year with the race profile leaning to class 1600m fillies and not really suiting dour oaks types. To me that makes me want to oppose the Punting Form selection Pretty Punk who looks like she wants 2000m or beyond.
The two horses I’ll be working around are Sedanzer from the Waterhouse/Bott yard and Kenenda from the Weir camp. Both fillies have a great turn of foot and deserve to be hard in the market. Both map worse of midfield which is a slight concern.
Curly Seal from the Bookies Bag is laying Keneda suggesting $4.00 is too short from a wide gate and a get back position. I’m not prepared to take her on but think she’s entitled to drift. Vince Accardi’s RSPs rate her as the strongest for ‘late closing speed’.
Sedanzer was ridden very negatively from a wide gate at Newcastle and that doesn’t have to be the case here from barrier two. Despite getting a soft cart into the race she really worked to the line impressively. She gets a senior rider here and will improve significantly fitness wise. That being the case I think the early market has her incorrectly priced at $10. She did make ‘Up N Rolling’ look pretty average and that horse was a moral beaten at Canterbury earlier this week after a pretty below par ride from Glyn Schofield.
BACK (WIN) Sedanzer