Race Assessment: Tasmanian Guineas

Hobart Race 7 | The Tasmanian Guineas | 1600m 3YO Open SW LR | 6.22pm AEDT


The Track

The track is currently a Good 4 with the rail out 3m. Thursday will be a sunny 29c, but there is rain developing around Hobart on Friday with an 80% chance of 5mm-10mm falling.

If 5mm or less rain falls then the track could stay in the Good 4 range. More than that is likely to tip it into the soft range. We have worked on a Soft 5 track.

Historically this type of track set up with soft ground see’s the inside prove a disadvantage and those running on out wider in the straight far better suited. If the track is a genuine soft, then as the meeting progresses we will see them get wider in the straight, towards the outside fence.

Off pace runners are well suited, but leaders and on-pace runners can still do well if they build momentum before the turn and head straight out to the better ground on the bend

Speed and Tactics 

There looks to be a little bit of speed here with Mister Songman (4), Chain of Fools (6) and Bosporus (9) likely to press forward in the early stages, with the latter two most likely to take up the running.

Their natural running style suggests this should be run at somewhere between an even and genuine pace.

Early Pace Rating: Even to Genuine.

Late Pace Rating: Below average to average.

Best Suited: Lead to three lengths off the lead.

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

There’s a notable lack of depth in this race, but the form of the top chances suggests a rating of at least 88 at the weights will be needed to win this race, with the potential for new peaks to take the mark higher.

Many of these are yet to get within 4 lengths of that standard.

Race Assessment

In our assessed price order:

He’s a rising star of TAS racing with 4 wins from his first 5 starts and good consistent ratings in the 88.5 to 91 range, which is the mark to beat in this race. He won a sit and sprint race over 1400m last start, but was as strong on the line as anything, so there’s no reason to doubt him at 1600m here. He looks to get an ideal run behind the lead and will be very hard to beat.

A very interesting runner here down from Sydney with the Waterhouse / Bott stable. She’s been very consistent this preparation with every one of her five ratings in the 86.5 to 89.5 range at the weights in this race, which is very competitive. Her two best performances of 88 and 89.5 have come on rain affected ground at 1600m, which is what she’s likely to strike in this race. With those figures and the ability to race up on the lead, she looks a genuine danger to the favourite Mr Songman and is the one more likely to present some betting value.

She’s been beaten 2L behind Mr Songman in her last two, which is obviously competitive form for this. She had every chance to do better behind him last start and couldn’t make an impression in the straight, so I’m not sure stepping up to 1600m is cause to be confident about her prospects of turning the tables though.

He’s been progressing through the grades, winning his last 3 starts at short prices. However there hasn’t been a great deal of substance in his race figures, so he’ll need to take another big step forward to reach something close to the standard needed to win this.

Beaten 3.3L behind Mr Songman at 25/1 last start. He’s not hopeless, but deserves to be a longshot again.

He’s had 5 runs this preparation and his best ratings are still a number of lengths below the standard needed here.

This is much harder than his recent Class 1 starts. He needs to find a number of lengths improvement to get in the finish.

She’s racing consistently in weaker races, but needs to make big improvement to be a factor in this.

He’s won his last two, but his figures haven’t shown a great deal of substance.

He looks well and truly outclassed

He looks well and truly outclassed

Betting Strategy

Mister Songman is the horse to beat, but early indicators are that he’ll be around the assessed price in the market and offering no great edge. Chain of Fools is the one most likely to represent genuine value.

Back on Betfair BACK – CHAIN OF FOOLS – Bet to WIN at >$3.90 – Stake 1% of your total bank.

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