Promotion Arbitrage

Posted: October 28, 2015
Betfair Promo Arber

The TAB and Corporate Bookies are locked in a marketing arms race, fighting to the death using bonus bets, reactivation offers and price boosts to increase their share of customers.

With this in mind, we’re introducing a Betfair customer who specialises in taking full advantage of the promotions on offer. The Promo Arber is on board to show you how to milk the TAB and Corporate Bookies for all their worth.

He’ll introduce you to the concept of arbitrage betting and teach you how to lock in a profit or create situations of minimal risk and significant returns from a range of promotions that have flooded the market.

Like most of you, I was easily drawn to the world of wagering. I loved sport and adored the thrill that betting added to my viewing experience. Unfortunately my betting knowledge was limited, I was your typical mug punter.

I placed bets with little analysis of each event and week after week I would curse getting done after a few legs of my weekend multi bet. No matter how many legs I seemed to have, I was always unlucky.

I grew tired of throwing my money away so I set off with the objective to no longer be one of the TAB’s and bookmaker’s favourite losing customers. I needed to bet better, as that blonde haired pommy guy kept telling me on the TV.

I did some research and came across the concept of arbitrage betting. Since then I have learnt how to apply it to the vast range of promos on offer across almost every betting agency. Arbing takes some effort, but who would turn down a low risk way of making money?

Backing winners is stressful, sure bets are as much fun and much more profitable.

Arbitrage betting is a one of the pillars of bookmaking and has risen to prominence in recent years with the growth of online betting through the Betfair Exchange.

Arbitrage requires placing bets on all outcomes of an event at different odds with multiple wagering providers – resulting in profit regardless of the outcome of the event.

With these principles of arbitrage in mind, you too can incorporate arbitrage strategies into your arsenal to become a profitable promotional punter.

The ability to place lay bets on the Exchange with Betfair is the key enabler that allows us to arbitrage and create optimal betting situations.

HOW TO PROFIT FROM BOOKMAKER PROMOTIONS

 

1. DEPOSIT BONUSES & BONUS BETS

Examples of these promotions:

Sign up Bonus 
‘Receive a bonus bet offer up to $500 when you place your first bet’

Deposit Bonus
‘Have your next deposit matched with bonus bets up to $250’

Winning Bonus
‘Place a winning bet on the Melbourne Cup and receive a bonus bet up to $100’

Refund Bonus
‘Have your first greyhound losing bet matched with a bonus bet up to $50’

As you can see, bonus bets are offered in a variety of forms.

Your account has just received a $500 deposit bonus bet. Unfortunately, despite bonus bets first appearing very attractive, they often are accompanied with a number of terms and conditions.

The main ones are that you are only entitled to the winnings from the bet placed, not the original $500 stake as you would receive with a regular bet and that you must place the bet at odds of $1.50 or greater.

You could place your $500 bonus bet on a $1.50 favourite and if it wins get a return of 50% from the bet – $250. However, if you knew you could give yourself the opportunity to make a return of 75% regardless of your selection winning or losing would you be interested in learning how to do so? Let me show you how.

English Premier League – Everton v Arsenal
Match Odds Market
A) Back bet $500 Bonus Bet on Everton to Win at $7.00 with the Bookmaker
B) Lay $397.35 on Everton to not win at $7.60
If Everton does not win
A) $500 bonus bet will be lost – $0 actual loss
B) $397.35 lay bet wins – $377 win taking into account 5% commission
Result: $377 profit
If Everton wins
A) $500 x $7.00 – $500 stake = $3,000 win
B) $397.35 x $7.60 = $2,623 loss
Result: $377 profit

However, each allows you to lock in a profit by laying off the bonus though the Betfair Exchange.

2. WINNINGS BONUS OR BOOSTED ODDS

Examples of these Promotions:

‘Bet on the Melbourne Cup and if your horse wins receive a 20 % boost on your winnings’
‘Bet between 12noon and 1pm and get a price boost on Fame Game $15 ($6 in regular market)’

To take advantage of these kinds of opportunities, there are a number of different betting approaches. Ranging from strategies that have relatively low risk to those that have maximum reward for a slightly greater risk.

Maximum Profit
Large potential collect while keeping the risk relatively low.
Note – you must select the winning horse to profit.

Minimum Risk
Maximum potential win possible while having no (or limited) financial exposure.
Note – you must select the winning horse to profit.

Even Profit 
Lock in a winning position no matter what the result of the race.
Note – your horse can win or lose, but either way you win.

Let’s take a look at how you would place your bets in each of the above betting approaches with an example.

It’s the 2015 Melbourne Cup and you have been offered a 50% bonus on winnings up to a max stake of $100.

A)   Place a $100 WIN bet on Protectionist at $8 with the Bookmaker.

B)   Place a $89.39 WIN market Lay bet on Protectionist at $9 with Betfair.

If Protectionist wins:

A)   $700 profit + $350 profit from 50% on winnings = $1050 profit

B)   -$715.12 loss

Result: $334.88 profit

If Protectionist loses:

A)   -$100 loss

B)   $84.03 profit ($89.39 win minus $5.36 with 6% Exchange commission)

Result: -$15.97 loss

The overall result from this bet was a $334.88 profit, with having only risked $15.97 in the event Protectionist lost the race. Through this method of betting, we were able to effectively create the odds for Protectionist to win of $21.96, well over the $8 market price of the horse.

A)   Place a $100 WIN bet on Protectionist at $8 with the Bookmaker.

B)   Place a $106.38 WIN market Lay bet on Protectionist at $9 with Betfair.

If Protectionist wins:

A)   $700 profit + $350 profit from 50% on winnings = $1050 profit

B)   $851.06 loss

Result: $198.94 profit

If Protectionist loses:

A)   -$100 loss

B)   $100 win ($106.38 win minus $6.38 with 6% Exchange commission)

Result: $0 profit/loss

A)   Place a $100 WIN bet on Protectionist at $8 with the Bookmaker.

B)   Place a $128.64 WIN market Lay bet on Protectionist at $9 with Betfair.

If Protectionist wins:

A)   $700 profit + $350 profit from 50% on winnings = $1050 profit

B)   $1029.12 loss

Result: $20.88 profit

If Protectionist loses:

A)   -$100 loss

B)   $120.92 win ($128.64 win minus $7.72 with 6% Exchange commission)

Result: $20.92 profit

3. REFUNDED BETS

In the 2015 State of Origin three match series, a number of bookmakers offered the promotion that if your team lead at any point during the match but went on to lose, your staked bet would be refunded as cash up to $100.

In order to take advantage of the offer in Game 1 of the series, you would place the following bets on the match odds market.

A)  $100 Back bet on NSW at $2.10 with Bookmaker 1
B)  $100 Back bet on QLD at $1.75 with Bookmaker 2

C)  $100 Lay bet on NSW at $2.15 with Betfair
D)  $100 Lay bet on QLD at $1.80 with Betfair

QLD went on to win the match 11-10 with a lead changing early during the game.The bets placed resulted as below:

A)  $0 position ($100 stake refunded due to lead change)
B)  $75 profit ($100 x $1.75)

C)  $100 profit ($100 backers stake)
D)  $80 loss ($80 Lay Liability)
Total Lay Position +19
*Commission charged on +$20 position ($100 – $80) with Betfair. Net Profit = $19 ($20 x .05 = $1 commission)

The overall result was a $94 profit.

The worst case scenario would have only risked $6 in the event the lead change did not occur and if QLD won. Through this method of betting, we were able to effectively create odds of a QLD victory and a lead change to be $16.67 which is well over the market place.

The use of bonus bets together with the Betfair Exchange to lock in a profit is a great method of Promotional Arbitrage betting, but with higher profits comes greater complexity.

In the next edition of the Promo Arber Series I will delve deeper into the intricacies of arbitrage betting, looking at how to get the maximum return on free bets and look at strategies to work around the turnover requirements that are often attached to bonus bets.

 

Until next time,

The Promo Arber.

This information is general in nature. Betfair does not warrant the accuracy of any promotional information of odds. This article does not constitute betting advice. Customers should review the terms and conditions of promotions to determine their eligibility.

 

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