Premier League Matchday 37: Football Form Labs

Posted: May 6, 2016 at 10:16 am

Jaime Vardy Leicester

Leicester v Everton

Sunday May 8, 2:30am

Match Odds

 

Chelsea’s comeback against Spurs handed Leicester the Premier League title and allows them a two game lap of honour to conclude their historic season. One of these is front of their own fans in this fixture before they travel to Stamford Bridge on the final day of the season to thank Chelsea for their efforts against Spurs.

Everton, meanwhile, ended a run of seven winless games with a 2-1 victory at home to Bournemouth last weekend and with Roberto Martinez’s job under severe pressure, he’ll no doubt hope his side can pick up a couple of wins at the end of the season to propel them up the table and add a bit more respectability to their campaign.

Leicester 

Leicester managed to score five goals in Jamie Vardy’s absence and proved why they’re Champions with their almost immediate response to going a goal down at Old Trafford.

Their home record this term is W11-D6-L1 as Arsenal are the only side to have won at the King Power Stadium. They’ve led at the break in their last five at home with clean sheets in eight of their last 10 and when hosting sides between 7th and 14th their record is W6-D2-L0 as draws against West Brom and West Ham are the only blots on their record. The Foxes kept a clean sheet in half of these games and led at the break in five.

Everton

The goals have dried up for Everton somewhat as they’ve managed just five in their last seven, due largely to the struggles of Romelu Lukaku who managed 15 goals in the first half of the season, but just three in Everton’s last 16.

The Toffees have only lost three times on the road this term as their record is W5-D9-L3, but they’ve scored just once in their last four away and their record when travelling to top-five sides since the start of last season is W0-D2-L6 as they failed to score six times.

However, they didn’t concede more than twice in any of these games and as a result six had fewer than three goals and five fewer than two.

Verdict

In the 10 seasons prior to this one across Europe’s Big Five League there have been 152 games played by teams that were all but assured of the title and they have a W93-D35-L24 record, with 58 of the victories coming in the 77 matches in front of their own fans (75%).

Whilst it’s unclear how much of an effect the title celebrations have had on Leicester, they’ll surely be keen to put on a good show in their final home game of the season and with Vardy back available and Ramiro Funes Mori, Phil Jagielka and Seamus Coleman all out for Everton, whilst Gareth Barry is also a doubt, we’re siding with the Champions in this one.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Leicester to Win at 1.92

 

Kun Agureo

Manchester City v Arsenal 

Monday May 9, 1:00am

Match Odds

 

Manchester City’s defeat at Southampton means they now lead their city rivals by just four points having played an extra game and, after being dumped out of the Champions League by Real Madrid, Pep Guardiola is in danger of competing in the Europa League next term.

Arsenal, meanwhile, have no such problems with finishing in the top-four as they’re set to qualify for their 19th consecutive Champions League and with their North London rivals stumbling in recent weeks, the gap is down to just three points and the Gunners could usurp their rivals and finish above them for the 21st season in a row after all.

Manchester City

City’s defeat against Southampton was their ninth in 13 games against top-eight teams this term as Southampton at home was the only one that they won. Indeed, the Citizens overall home record this season is W12-D1-L5, with five of the six defeats coming against top-eight sides.

They trailed at the break in four of the defeats and conceded at least twice in four which contrasts to last season when they drew at home to Champions Chelsea and won the Manchester Derby whilst in Manuel Pellegrini’s first season in charge they beat top-four sides Liverpool and Arsenal at the Etihad.

Arsenal

Back-to-back defeats against Manchester Utd and Swansea following a win over Leicester derailed Arsenal’s title challenge, but since then the Gunners are unbeaten in eight matches with five clean sheets, including in their last three.

Their away record this term is W8-D6-L4 but they’ve only won two of their last nine on the road. However, Arsenal’s record when travelling to fellow top-four sides is much improved in recent times as they’re W2-D2-L1 since the start of last season as their only defeat came against bogey-team Chelsea early on last term.

The Gunners’ trips to top-eight sides this season have been full of goals as all six have had more than three goals, with 32 in total (5.3 gpg).

Verdict

Both teams have scored in five of City’s six home games against top-eight sides this season with four seeing more than two goals and three with more than three and as a result ‘overs’ looks the best way to approach this one, with Over 3.5 the best bet at 2.88. In terms of the match outcome, City look a little short given their poor record against the top teams this term and since Arsenal have improved when travelling to top-four sides, we’d side with them at 2.12 Draw No Bet if pushed.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 3.5 Goals at 2.88