Perth Glory v Melbourne Victory: The A-League Analyst



Perth Glory v Melbourne Victory

Wednesday December 16, 9pm

Match Odds


Mid-week A-League action this Wednesday night as the Perth Glory and Melbourne Victory meet out west in a catch-up Round 5 fixture. The Glory recorded just their second win of the season against Central Coast on Saturday night, while any win against the Mariners needs to be taken in context to their performances this season, the three points still would have been a good confidence filler for Kenny Lowe’s chargers. With Josh Risdon back they are slowly getting back toward full strength, albeit in a pretty thin squad.

The Victory have lost two on the trot with tough away matches against Wellington (in Auckland) and Western Sydney. They now play their third away match in 10 days and have the mother of all Melbourne derbies to come back to on Saturday.

Perth have been difficult to pin down this season due in most part to the injuries they have had to cope with, on top of a massive turnover of players in the off season. Perhaps as Lowe has suggested they are just starting to get their season going. Given their difficulties they have only copped one bad defeat against City with half a team. They have faced an average of 5.1 shots on goal per match and perhaps would have conceded more goals but have managed to push the opposition into having 53% of shots faced from inside the area which is equal best in the league with Sydney. So if we consider that they have conceded eight goals in two matches and just seven in their other six, perhaps they are capable of a move away from their current position of ninth.

They have won 10 of their last 18 home matches and only one of their last six home games against the Victory.

The champs lost only once on the road last season but have lost three of five this year and alarmingly been kept scoreless in four of those five matches. To put that in context they were kept scoreless just twice last season. Their shots on average of 5.1 matches per match is a little above average and ranked third, however, their conversion rate is on the low side at 24%. Their goals scored is boosted by two direct free kicks (from outside the area), one penalty and one own goal.


Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 2.5 goals for 1.5 units

Perth matches are nearly always overs and despite the lower than average conversion rates of both teams is still a bet at 1.75+ for 1.5 points.

Back on Betfair BACK – Perth to win at 4+ for 1.5 points

It is a good size bet on a team at such a price but with Victory likely to rotate their squad there are plenty of positives to a good bet at value. For the more conservative natured, a lay of Victory at up to 2.0 is a fair play.