Paws of Thunder Final @ Wentworth Park, Saturday January 16: The Form Hound

Posted: January 16, 2016 at 3:06 pm

Form Hound

PAWS OF THUNDER @ Wentworth Park, Saturday January 16 – 9:13pm EDST

 

Track record: Shakey Jakey 29.07 6th Apr 2014.

 

RACE 6 – PAWS OF THUNDER FINAL – 520m

 

Runner & Comment

  1. Nangar Flame: Clearly not the best beginner in the race and will need some carnage at the first turn to get a few out of the way down the back. Will be running on hard but doubt you can give this lot a start.
  2. Tap Out Rose: Has some early speed and although didn’t go quick last week in her heat win, should get to the rails first. Looks good value and should improve.
  3. Asa Flying Spur: Going great guns but was a surprise winner at big odds in his heat win. Has some early pace but doubt he can cross. Looks tested in this class.
  4. Smart Missile: Had the red box in his heat win and draws shockingly here with pace all around. Can fly when in the clear but looks tested from the draw and may get spat out early. Big risk.
  5. Paloma Lago: Won her heat from the pink box in slow time. Doubt she is up to this. Will be huge odds.
  6. Zambora Brockie: Can absolutely fly the lids, was the fastest heat winner and clearly the favourite for this. Did start from the six box four back here and missed the kick so be wary. Simply if he steps, he will win. Is a winner of seven from ten around the Glebe circuit.
  7. Elfen Bale: Winner in slow time in her heat but is assisted with the speed to her inside. Will need to do everything right. Place chance if she gets the cart across but impossible to see her running them down if that script at the start pans out.
  8. Helga Bale: Was not wanted in the betting at her first Wentworth Park start after only average stats south of the border. Time was worrying, just not the right draw for her. Will start big odds and deservedly so.
  9. Pedro Cerrano (1st Reserve): He can fly the lids, and did lead them for a long way last start. Would need a good draw if he gets a start.
  10. Explosive Range (2nd Reserve): Has no early speed and unless there is a mass of trouble at the first turn, impossible to see him running a place.

Race Summary

There are only two scenarios that can play out here. If ZAMBORA BROCKIE steps well, he will be leading at the post the first time, and will be in the same position a lap later. His natural early speed and sectionals down the back should see him run away with it. That’s if he does step… If he doesn’t, TAP OUT ROSE looks beautifully boxed outside moderate beginner NANGAR FLAME, should be on the rails first and will lead for a long way. SMART MISSILE may have the fastest raw speed in the event but looks a big risk from the draw. If ZAMBORA BROCKIE does step well then ELFEN BALE should get a good cart across, can’t run him down but can run a place. Whichever scenario happens, NANGAR FLAME will be giving them a start, but should get a good passage through down the back and will hit the line hard.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – ZAMBORA BROCKIE (6) > $2.00 for 10 units

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – TAP OUT ROSE (2) > $8.00 for 3 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – SMART MISSILE (4) < $8.00 for 3 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – ELFEN BALE (7) < $9.00 for 3 units