Darren Potter – Race Assessments
Pakenham, Thursday 31st March 2016
Darren Potter is a professional punter who has come to prominence via the Punters Show website. Darren has been a star-performer with his public sets, returning profits month in, month out on the back of his very well constructed staking plans.
Darren provides full sets for each Saturday meeting in Melbourne, most Wednesday’s and hybrid versions with comments like you will see below for meetings such as Pakenham.
Prices are derived using his own scale of performance benchmarks applied to predicted race shape and race conditions – assessed market is set to 100%. Darren endeavours to isolate the key runners in each race and look at why they are over or under valued in the market.
The horses tagged as positive have factors that he thinks the early market may have over looked and represent good value; the horses tagged as neutral are solid chances but found in the market; and the negative group are horses identified as over valued.
Interim Set: will be available on Friday to allow customers to lock in Friday corporate prices (as highlighted on the Betting Plan) if desired. The final set will be available after scratchings on Saturday morning. More often than not there will not be any significant difference between the interim set and the final set but at times weather and scratchings can lead to changes in race shape and track pattern.
Betting Plan: Is focussed on the horses in the positive & neutral categories and based on a modified Kelly method using assessed prices, the early market and expected raceday trading to calculate suggested units.
Back to Pakenham with the rail true and the track dry. It’s a very good track but that said the middle to wide gates are a minor advantage, as is racing in the off rails positions.
Pakenham Assessments R5 – 8
Race Overview: Moderate team of older horses and two 3yo’s at 1600m; leaning to the 3yo’s however Noro Lim is a wildcard with D.Lane booked.
Map Comment: None
Tempo: Slow on paper at least 2L below even.
Howard Be Thy Name: He’s still in his first prep and has been up since October but he is from the D.Weir stable. He’s raced consistently throughout and looks certain to run to level that makes him the horse to beat.
Manhattan Boss: He’s the other 3yo in the race. He’s had a stop start four-start career but his recent Bendigo win was good enough to fit in here with a good winning chance.
Noro Lim: He’s a UK import making his Australian debut. His record is only fair but the booking of D.Lane gets him on my radar.
Market Comment: Howard Be Thy Name short enough.
Race Overview: F&M at 1200m.
Map Comment: Speculating that S.Baster will send Tiz My View forward. Tricky ride for young M.Aitken on Marrakesh from the inside draw.
Tiz My View: She’s a 3yof that has done most of her racing in listed races that are beyond her. She’s had two runs in midweek races and won them both. I think the booking of S.Baster signals positive intent and she’s the horse I want to be on at big odds.
Marrakesh: She’s a 4yo mare that is racing well without winning. She only has to hold her form to be in the finish but it won’t be an easy ride for M.Aitken from the inside draw.
Market Comment: Tiz My View the value runner.
Race Overview: Older horses and two 3yo’s at 1200m.
Map Comment: None
Tempo: 2L above even.
Gervais: He’s a 3yo resuming in his second prep. His two 1200m runs in his first prep were good, he struggled a bit when stepped up in distance. He’s done nice things at both recent jumpouts and I’m expecting a strong performance first up in his second prep.
Sharif: He’s a lightly raced 4yo resuming off a couple of fair runs last prep. His first jumpout wasn’t much good but he improved sharply at his second. He fits in with a winning chance.
Market Comment: Difficult market to predict with the favoured runners resuming but I think Gervais will be the SP favourite.
Race Overview: Older horses and three 3yo’s at 1400m.
Map Comment: Oxbow gets good control with his main dangers in awkward positions.
Tempo: 1L above even.
Oxbow: He’s a lightly raced 3yo that has run well at his two runs since being gelded. He gets good control and is a clear top pick.
Iron Spider: He’s a lightly raced 4yo resuming off a short break. The map is awkward but he’s got the talent to win this race.
Market Comment: Early market order close to the mark.
Race 6: BACK (WIN) Tiz My View (3 Units) & BACK (PLACE) Tiz My View (3 Units)
Race 7: BACK (WIN) Sharif (3 Units) & Gervais (5 Units)
Race 8: BACK (WIN) Iron Spider (3 Units) & Oxbow (6 Units)