Pakenham, Thursday 10th March 2016: Darren Potter Race Assessments

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Darren Potter – Race Assessments

Pakenham, Thursday 10th March 2016

Darren Potter is a professional punter who has come to prominence via the Punters Show website. Darren has been a star-performer with his public sets, returning profits month in, month out on the back of his very well constructed staking plans.

Darren provides full sets for each Saturday meeting in Melbourne, most Wednesday’s and hybrid versions with comments like you will see below for meetings such as Pakenham.

Prices are derived using his own scale of performance benchmarks applied to predicted race shape and race conditions – assessed market is set to 100%. Darren endeavours to isolate the key runners in each race and look at why they are over or under valued in the market.

The horses tagged as positive have factors that he thinks the early market may have over looked and represent good value; the horses tagged as neutral are solid chances but found in the market; and the negative group are horses identified as over valued.

Interim Set: will be available on Friday to allow customers to lock in Friday corporate prices (as highlighted on the Betting Plan) if desired. The final set will be available after scratchings on Saturday morning. More often than not there will not be any significant difference between the interim set and the final set but at times weather and scratchings can lead to changes in race shape and track pattern.

Betting Plan: Is focussed on the horses in the positive & neutral categories and based on a modified Kelly method using assessed prices, the early market and expected raceday trading to calculate suggested units.

Pakenham Assessments R5 – 8

Pakenham Race 8 Comments

Positive Comments

Fast Cash: He’s a lightly raced 4yo that has returned in good form with excellent 1st & 2nd up runs. He’s set to peak 3rd up and only need the young jockey to get him away from the rail in the home straight to be the horse to beat.

Neutral Comments

Spirit Or Lager: He’s an honest on-pacer that gets a map to be in the finish again 3rd up.

Tansy: He’s a consistent sprinter that drops a long way back in grade after running well in a series of Saturday races. He’s drawn to race in the running line and will be strong late.

Market Comments

Fast Cash a backable price in the early play. Staviva is likely to be well supported but he’s faces a task 1st up for mine.

 

Betting Strategy

Race 5: BACK (WIN) Attract The Magic (3 Units), Motific (1 Unit), Tigger (5.5 Units)


Race 6: BACK (WIN) Devlishly (5 Units), Kalidaz (2 Units), Lusking Belle (0.5 Unit), Lusking Belle (Place 1 Unit)


Race 7: BACK (WIN) Kiss Me Ketut (3.5 Units) & Burning Mountain (3.5) Units

Race 8: BACK (WIN) Fast Cash (5 Units), Tansy (2.5 Units), Spirit Or Lager (2.5 Units)


Saturday Assessments 

If you like what you see, you can get more information and subscribe to Darren’s Saturday service for just $55 per week starting with the huge Australian Cup Day meeting at Flemington – head to the Punters Show buying engine www.12follow.com.au.