St George Illawarra v Cronulla
Friday April 13, 7:50pm – WIN Stadium
St George Illawarra have been the most impressive team in the premiership through five weeks, undefeated and with the best attack in the competition. At home to an underwhelming Cronulla team though, they look vulnerable. Most against the Dragons here is the game script with 10 of the last 13 matches tallying 37 or fewer, suggesting these two play tight, dour affairs.
Those kind of games suit Cronulla, who are having all kinds of attacking issues, no end. The Sharks have covered 16 of their last 23 as a road underdog, winning 15 outright, while they have covered five of six since 2015 after being held to 10 points in their previous game.
New Zealand v Brisbane
Saturday April 14, 3:00pm – Mt Smart Stadium
The model loves the Broncos in this one, throwing them out as favourites against a Warriors team whose bubble is expected to burst soon. Brisbane certainly have not passed the eye test this year but there is a positive in that they have grinded out two wins.
The Broncos have covered 11 of their last 17 as an underdog away from Suncorp and 11 of their last 15 on the road off a loss. The Warriors have covered just two of their last 11 games at Mt Smart when favoured by 4 or more points. This is a good opportunity for Brisbane to bounce back.
Sydney Roosters v South Sydney
Thursday April 12, 8:05pm – Allianz Stadium
The model has priced Souths at $2.82 in this rivalry games against rivals the Sydney Roosters yet $3.50 is available, making them a good play. The Rabbitohs-Roosters games have been typically low-scoring and hard-fought with four of the last five tallying 30 points or fewer. Souths have covered 11 of their last 18 away from ANZ while they have covered six of their last nine as an underdog of 8 or more.
Souths have no Sam Burgess but they do have the defence to overpower the Roosters physically and if they can win the middle they can win the match.