Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the NRL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting NRL outcomes.
Predicted NRL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.
Data Scientists Comments
West Tigers remain in the hunt to sneak into the eight, needing a win at home against Canberra to book an unlikely play-offs birth. Unfortunately for the Tigers they come head on with an in-form Raiders side pushing for a top two finish. The model is against the Tigers rating them just a $3.81 (26%) chance of winning, compared to the $2.40 (42%) on offer in the early Exchange market.
After losing to Brisbane last week, Melbourne Storm get another chance to seal the Minor Premiership. The first-placed Storm host the Sharks in second position. The model has rated the Storm a $1.49 (67%) chance, whilst the Sharks rate a $3.06 (33%) chance of winning. The early market almost mirrors the models rating so we could be in for a classic this Saturday.
All times below are EST.
Brisbane v Sydney
Thursday September 1, 7:50pm – Suncorp Stadium
Predicted Margin: Brisbane by 10 points
St George Illawarra v Newcastle
Saturday September 3, 3:00pm – UOW Jubilee Oval
Predicted Margin: Dragons by 14
Melbourne v Cronulla
Saturday September 3, 7:30pm – AAMI Park
Predicted Margin: Storm by 6
NZ Warriors v Parramatta
Sunday September 4, 4:00pm – Mt Smart Stadium
Predicted Margin: Warriors by 8
Canterbury v South Sydney
Friday September 2, 7:50pm – ANZ Stadium
Predicted Margin: Bulldogs by 6
North Queensland v Gold Coast
Saturday September 3, 5:30pm – 1300 Smiles Stadium
Predicted Margin: Cowboys by 18
West Tigers v Canberra
Sunday September 4, 2:00pm – Leichardt Oval
Predicted Margin: Raiders by 10
Penrith v Manly
Sunday September 4, 6:30pm – Pepper Stadium
Predicted Margin: Panthers by 8