NRL Round 25 Predictions: Data Scientists’ Predictive Model

Betfair Data Scientists

Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the NRL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting NRL outcomes.

Predicted NRL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.

Data Scientists Comments


The fight for the last spots in the top-8 are heating up with seventh-placed Penrith Panthers travelling to the Gold Coast to take on a Titans side desperately holding onto the final play-off spot. The model and the market are in in reverse order, with Gold Coast opening as favourites on the exchange at $1.79 (56% winning probability) while the Panthers are currently available at $2.24 (44%). The Model has Penrith as favourites at $1.79 (56%) with the Titans at $2.27 (44%). Thus making Penrith appeal as value bet of the weekend.


The Minor Premiers will either be Melbourne Storm or Cronulla. Melbourne can seal it with a win against Brisbane on Friday Night, the model has them a $1.44 (69%) chance of doing so. Win-less in their last four and in danger of dropping out of the top-two, the Sharks face the 14th placed Sydney Roosters. The model rates Cronulla a $1.91 (52%) winning chance against the Roosters, compared to the $1.58 (63%) offered on the Exchange.


All times below are EST.

Canterbury v North Queensland

Thursday August 25, 7:50pm – Belmore Sports Ground
Predicted Margin: Cowboys by 1 points

Manly v Canberra

Saturday August 27, 3:00pm – Brookvale Oval
Predicted Margin: Raiders by 2

Cronulla v Sydney

Saturday August 27, 7:30pm – Southern Cross Group Stadium
Predicted Margin: Sharks by 1

Newcastle v South Sydney

Sunday August 28, 4:00pm – Hunter Stadium
Predicted Margin: Rabbitohs by 4

Melbourne v Brisbane

Friday August 26, 7:50pm – AAMI Park
Predicted Margin: Storm by 8

Gold Coast v Penrith

Saturday August 27, 5:30pm – CBUS Super Stadium
Predicted Margin: Panthers by 2

NZ Warriors v West Tigers

Sunday August 28, 2:00pm – Mt Smart Stadium
Predicted Margin: Warriors by 4

Parramatta v St George Illawarra

Monday July 25, 7:00pm – Pirtek Stadium
Predicted Margin: Eels by 6

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