Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the NRL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting NRL outcomes.
Predicted NRL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.
Data Scientists Comments
Canberra Raiders are the form team of the competition after notching their seventh-straight win in most impressive fashion against ladder-leading Melbourne Storm. The model has put the line through the Eels in their season from hell, rating them just a 6% ($14.55) of knocking off the Raiders in the nation’s capital. The $1.22 (81%) available in early markets on the exchange represents value for Canberra with the Model rating them as low of $1.07 (93%).
The Model expects Melbourne to bounce back immediately when they face arch-rivals Manly at Brookvale on Saturday Night. The early market suggests Melbourne Storm are a ‘good thing’ at $1.32 (75%), but the Model has rated the storm at $1.76 (56%). The Model rates Sea Eagles a 44% ($2.26) winning chance compared to the 25%($3.95) market price. Don’t be surprised to see the Storm to drift heavily opening up a great Lay-To-Back opportunity.
All times below are EST.
Brisbane v Canterbury
Thursday August 18, 7:50pm – Suncorp Stadium
Predicted Margin: Broncos by 6 points
Newcastle v Gold Coast
Saturday July 23, 3:00pm – Hunter Stadium
Predicted Margin: Titans by 10
North Queensland v NZ Warriors
Saturday August 20, 7:30pm – 1300 Smiles Stadium
Predicted Margin: Cowboys by 14
Sydney v St George Illawarra
Sunday August 21, 4:00pm – Allianz Stadium
Predicted Margin: Roosters by 6
Penrith v West Tigers
Friday August 19, 7:50pm – Pepper Stadium
Predicted Margin: Panthers by 12
Manly v Melbourne
Saturday August 20, 5:30pm – Brookvale Oval
Predicted Margin: Storm by 2
Canberra v Parramatta
Sunday August 21, 2:00pm – GIO Stadium
Predicted Margin: Raiders by 24
South Sydney v Cronulla
Monday August 22, 7:00pm – ANZ Stadium
Predicted Margin: Sharks by 6