NRL Round 23 Predictions: Data Scientists’ Predictive Model

Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the NRL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting NRL outcomes.

Predicted NRL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.

Data Scientists Comments


The Melbourne Storm escaped with a 1-point victory against South Sydney despite trailing by 2 points with just 30 seconds left on the clock. The model suggests another tight contest in Round 23 with Canberra Raiders rated a 52% ($1.91) chance of winning, with the predicted winning margin of 1 point. This top-four clash looms as the match of the round.

St George Illawarra Dragons and Newcastle Knights have both been rated well under the market expectation this weekend (Dragons 43% ($2.35), Market $4 and Knights 32% ($3.05), Market $5.1). Both teams are out of finals contention with little to play for and face the finals bound Cronulla and Penrith. The model suggests that a bet at the ‘Plus Handicap’  should be considered against the away favourites.



All times below are EST.

Canterbury v Manly

Thursday August 11, 7:50pm – ANZ Stadium
Predicted Margin: Bulldogs by 4 points

West Tigers v Gold Coast

Saturday August 13, 3:00pm – ANZ Stadium
Predicted Margin: Tigers by 1

St George Illawarra v Cronulla

Saturday August 13, 7:30pm – UOW Jubilee Oval
Predicted Margin: Sharks by 3

Sydney v North Queensland

Sunday August 14, 4:00pm – Allianz Stadium
Predicted Margin: Cowboys by 6

Brisbane v Paramatta

Friday August 12, 7:50pm – Suncorp Stadium
Predicted Margin: Broncos by 16

NZ Warriors v South Sydney

Saturday August 13, 5:30pm – Mt Smart Stadium
Predicted Margin: Warriors by 8

Newcastle v Penrith

Sunday August 14, 2:00pm – Hunter Stadium
Predicted Margin: Panthers by 6

Canberra v Melbourne

Monday August 15, 7:00pm – GIO Stadium
Predicted Margin: Raiders by 1

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