NRL Round 22 Predictions: Data Scientists’ Predictive Model

Posted: August 3, 2016
Betfair Data Scientists

Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the NRL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting NRL outcomes.

Predicted NRL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.

Data Scientists Comments

St George Illawarra need a win to keep their Semi Finals hopes alive against the Broncos on Thursday and we give them every chance to do so, rating the Dragons a 54% ($1.88) chance of beating last years fallen Grand Finalists. The market on the other hand is seriously undervaluing the home side at $4.8, giving them just 20% chance of victory. Even considering the Dragons will be without Tyson Frizell, who has arguably been their best player this season, they are the model’s value bet for the round.

The $1.61 available on the exchange for the Gold Coast Titans compared to the $1.86 the model has listed them as may not scream value, but the shock coup of Jarryd Hayne‘s signature and the likelihood of the code-hopper running out against the Warriors on Sunday helps us understand the current state of market. With both teams desperate to keep finals hopes alive it could be the ‘In-Play’ trading match of the round.

Sydney Roosters may be in the midst of their worst season in recent memory and with no chance of finals football, the model installs them as a slight favourite to upset the finals-chasing Penrith on Monday night. Either Team Under 6.5 appears the value play.

All times below are EST.

St George Illawarra v Brisbane

Thursday August 4, 7:50pm – WIN Stadium
Predicted Margin: Dragons by 1

Newcastle v Canterbury

Saturday August 6, 3:00pm – Hunter Stadium
Predicted Margin: Bulldogs by 8

Melbourne v South Sydney

Saturday August 6, 7:30pm – AAMI Park
Predicted Margin: Storm by 18

West Tigers v North Queensland

Sunday August 7, 4:00pm – Leichhardt Oval
Predicted Margin: Cowboys by 6

Parramatta v Manly

Friday August 5, 7:50pm – Pirtek Stadium
Predicted Margin: Sea Eagles by 2

Cronulla v Canberra

Saturday August 6, 5:30pm – Southern Cross Group Stadium
Predicted Margin: Sharks by 4

Gold Coast v NZ Warriors

Sunday August 7, 2:00pm – CBUS Super Stadium
Predicted Margin: Titans by 2

Penrith v Sydney

Monday August 8, 7:00pm – Pepper Stadium
Predicted Margin: Roosters by 1

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