NRL Round 21 Predictions: Data Scientists’ Predictive Model

Posted: July 27, 2016
Betfair Data Scientists

Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the NRL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting NRL outcomes.

Predicted NRL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.

Data Scientists Comments

Brisbane may be in a serious form slump but we have them as comfortable favourites against the equally out of form Roosters on Thursday Night. We rate the Broncos a 57% chance of winning at Allianz Stadium leading to them being our value selection of the round.

The model and the market are going in totally different direction with North Queensland in their top-four clash against Melbourne (Model $1.57, Market $2.22). Jonathon Thurston’s likely omission with a hamstring injury will hugely affect the Cowboys but still should be considered at the line.

Cronulla‘s 15-game winning streak looks likely to continue when they face Gold Coast on Monday Night. The Titans may be on the brink of a surprise finals berth, although the model can’t see them ending the Sharks winning ways predicting a 16-point win to the Shire boys.

All times below are EST.

Sydney v Brisbane 

Thursday July 28, 7:50pm – Allianz Stadium
Predicted Margin: Broncos by 2 points

NZ Warriors v Penrith 

Saturday July 30, 3:00pm – Mt Smart Stadium
Predicted Margin: Warriors by 4

North Queensland v Melbourne

Saturday July 30, 7:30pm – 1300 Smiles Stadium
Predicted Margin: Cowboys by 6

Manly v Newcastle

Sunday July 31, 4:00pm – Brookvale Oval
Predicted Margin: Sea Eagles by 14

Canterbury v St George Illawarra 

Friday July 29, 7:50pm – ANZ Stadium
Predicted Margin: Bulldogs by 12

Parramatta v Wests Tigers

Saturday July 30, 5:30pm – ANZ Stadium
Predicted Margin: Eels by 1

South Sydney v Canberra

Sunday July 31, 2:00pm – ANZ Stadium
Predicted Margin: Raiders by 1

Gold Coast v Cronulla

Monday August 1, 7:00pm – CBUS Super Stadium
Predicted Margin: Sharks by 16

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